\u3000\u3000 Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) (601816)
Key investment points
It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 4.609-5.094 billion yuan, which is still affected by the epidemic control in the short term. The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 4.609-5.094 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42.75% - 57.77%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter is 262-747 million yuan. On the whole, the company's core lines are still affected by the covid-19 epidemic control of the core hub along the line, but the company optimizes the transport capacity structure in combination with the changes of passenger flow, stops and reduces the trains with low passenger occupancy rate in time, and improves the quality and efficiency of operation.
On the whole, the covid-19 epidemic in Nanjing in the third and fourth quarters of 2021 had a superimposed impact. The capital advocated not to leave Beijing unless necessary and strictly controlled the holding of national activities in Beijing. The tight access control had a certain impact on Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) performance, but we analyzed that the cross line vehicle scheduling formed a certain support for the company's profits. We expect that in the first quarter of 2022, the control of personnel flow in the capital will remain relatively strict. However, in the future, once the epidemic situation improves and the control is loose, on the one hand, the increase of passenger seating rate and train number will increase, on the other hand, the fluctuation of ticket prices may be further realized, which is expected to drive the further repair of profits.
At the freight rate side, the floating fare mechanism reform will be implemented, and the medium and long-term rates are expected to improve after the epidemic
Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) the announcement will implement the floating fare mechanism from December 23, 2020. Taking the second-class seat as the benchmark, the prices of business seat, special seat and first-class seat are 3.5 times, 1.8 times and 1.6 times respectively, and the five grade fare and fast and slow train system are implemented as a whole. On June 25, 2021, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) with a new round of national railway mapping, Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) further implemented seven grade ticket prices, implemented the fast and slow train system and peak valley system, and further liberalized the marketization of ticket prices. We believe that the subjective conditions for the marketization of the company's ticket price have been met. If the market demand tends to be strong after the end of the epidemic, the overall rate will maintain a good trend, and the ticket price elasticity is expected to be further released.
At the traffic volume end, long knitting is put into operation, and the optimization of weaving dense structure still brings growth space
Based on the analysis of vehicle structure, passenger occupancy rate and passenger transport map, the traffic volume of Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) still has room for growth in the medium and long term after the epidemic, and the growth of traffic volume will mainly come from the supply side of three aspects: 1 The Fuxing no. of the long composition group was put into operation (from 0:00 on June 25, the national railway implemented the train diagram of the third quarter of this year, and the Fuxing No. with a speed of 350 kilometers per hour on Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) will be adjusted from 36 to 66); 2. Weaving density at departure time; 3. Optimize the cross line vehicle structure of this line and improve the matching efficiency of train numbers.
Sign a strategic cooperation agreement with China electric power, or it is expected to achieve in-depth cooperation in resources
The company signed the strategic cooperation agreement with China Power International Development Co., Ltd. on January 11, 2022. By establishing a long-term and stable strategic partnership, the company will realize resource sharing and complementary advantages in the fields of power marketization, comprehensive intelligent energy investment, construction and operation, carbon trading, green card and green power trading, etc. Among them, in terms of power market-oriented transactions, the two sides agreed that under the same conditions, China power will give priority to providing electric energy supply services for Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) subordinate power enterprises, and Beijing-Shanghai High Speed Railway Co.Ltd(601816) will give priority to China power as an electric energy supplier. In 2020, the company's energy expenditure accounted for 15.8% of the operating cost. We believe that the implementation of this strategic cooperation may help the company maintain relatively stable power supply in the medium and long term.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.010 billion yuan, 11.034 billion yuan and 12.501 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 49 times, 22 times and 20 times of the current share price PE respectively. We still pay attention to the medium and long-term volume and price growth space of the company and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the passenger flow recovery of Beijing Shanghai line is less than expected; The progress of turning losses of Jingfu Anhui company was delayed.
