\u3000\u3000 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the company will realize an operating revenue of 2.78-2.85 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 53.6% – 57.5% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 275-295 million yuan, an increase of 18.5% – 27.1% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 260-280 million, with an increase of 15.1% – 24.0%. Excluding the impact of excess performance incentive expenditure and amortization expense of share based payment of 35 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 310-330 million yuan, an increase of 33.57% – 42.18% at the same time; Deduct non net profit of RMB 295-315 million, an increase of 30.63% – 39.48% at the same time. Revenue and profit slightly exceeded market expectations.
Q4 profitability improved against the trend under cost pressure
21q4 is expected to realize an income of 820-890 million yuan, an increase of 34.4% – 45.9% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 77-97 million yuan, an increase of 5.5% – 32.8% at the same time; After excluding the impact of incentive fees, the net interest rate of non parent company deduction is expected to be 10.0% – 13.3%, which has improved month on month (Q3 is 9.7%). Based on the median value of performance forecast of 11.6%, it is expected to remain stable year-on-year (20q4 is 11.9%); The net interest rate after deducting incentive expenses was 10.35% – 11.33%, which decreased year-on-year (12.48% in 20 years). It is speculated that it was caused by the rise of raw material prices. We believe that the company actively arranges Super channels, superimposes super customers and expands stores at a high speed to promote the rapid and large-scale expansion of frozen baking products. The change of the overall sales structure is expected to further release the profitability. It is expected that the proportion of frozen baking products in the whole year of 21 will be about 60%, and it is expected to continue to improve in the future.
Actively adjust the price to deal with the rising pressure of raw material prices, which is expected to be transmitted smoothly
On January 5, the company issued a price increase announcement, raising the ex factory price of some main frozen baked foods and baking raw materials by 3% – 8%. In 2021, the prices of the company’s main raw materials such as flour and oil increased significantly, and the gross profit margin was under pressure. The company’s active price adjustment is expected to alleviate the cost pressure. The company has strong stickiness to downstream distributors, major customers, bakeries and other companies in the industry. Other companies in the industry have also raised product prices recently. Therefore, we expect that the company’s demand will be less affected by the price increase, and the price increase is expected to be conducted smoothly.
Investment advice and profit forecast
According to the equity incentive plan, the 21-year target (operating revenue of 2.534 billion yuan) is likely to be exceeded. The company continued to benefit from the diversified sales channels arranged in advance, and large single products ushered in large quantities; In the future, the production capacity will be further optimized to expand the coverage of supermarkets and bakeries; Optimize the existing product structure and actively cultivate potential single products such as frozen cake. Therefore, we raised the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 280 / 37 / 510 million yuan (the original forecast value was 270 / 3.7 / 490 million yuan), the corresponding EPS was 166 / 2.16/3.03 yuan (the original forecast value was 1.62 / 2.16 / 2.92 yuan), and the corresponding PE was 70 / 54 / 38 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Raw material prices fluctuate sharply, industry competition intensifies, and food safety risks
