\u3000\u3000 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2-2.05 billion (YoY + 212% - 220%) and deduct non RMB 1.85-1.9 billion (YoY + 248% - 258%) in 2021.
Corresponding Q4: RMB 670-720 million (YoY + 71-84%) to the parent, and RMB 640-690 million (YoY + 73% - 87%) to be deducted.
Split of revenue and performance: dual brands continue to drive, and the profit is slightly affected by equity incentive
Revenue side: dual brand driven, maintaining high growth.
Combined with the monitoring of third-party sales data such as business consultants, we expect: the total revenue exceeds 13 billion (YoY + 81%), corresponding to Q4 revenue of 4.8 billion (YoY + 55%);
Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand Q4: revenue 2.6 billion (YoY + 53%), China 1.9 billion (YoY + 65%), overseas 800 million (YoY + 54%); Tianke brand Q4: revenue of 1.9 billion (YoY + 143%), China of 1.4 billion (YoY + 190%), overseas of 500 million (YoY + 68%); In addition, it is estimated that the income from OEM and others is about 300 million.
Profit side: Q4 equity incentive fee slightly affects the net interest rate.
The annual net interest rate is expected to be about 15.5% (YoY + 6.6pct), and the net interest rate of Q4 is expected to be about 14.5%, which is slightly lower than that of the previous month. It is expected that the profit margin will be affected by 0.6% due to the provision of equity incentive fee of RMB 30 million in Q4 (corresponding to 20211030 equity incentive plan). Excluding the impact of incentive fees, it is estimated that the net interest rate of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand is 13%, unchanged month on month; The net profit margin of Tianke brand is expected to be 18%, unchanged month on month.
Business tracking: the performance of mid-range new products can be expected, and the industry is expected to increase both volume and price in 22 years
New product outlook: self dust collection / self-cleaning in the landing of non high-end models. This year, the base station innovation of self dust collection / self-cleaning sweepers is mainly configured in the high-end flagship model of the industry. It is expected that more price sweepers will land new base station functions next year. Take the overseas new products of shark as an example. It has been applied to dust collection products at the mid-range price of $400-500. It is expected that Chinese manufacturers such as Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and stone will also follow up in 2022.
Industry outlook for 2022: volume and price are expected to rise.
Price: according to orvey, after the release of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) X1 in September, the average price of the industry further increased, and the sales volume of high-end market with unit price of 3000 yuan + has accounted for 70%. If the industry maintains the product structure in the peak season from November to December 2021 in 2022, the industry average price is expected to have 30% upward space (the annual average price in 2021 is 2412 yuan, and the average price in November 2021 is 3142 yuan). Considering that the new functions may fall in the middle-end landing price next year, it is conservatively estimated that the average price of the industry has 15-20% upward space. Volume: the implementation of new functions such as self-cleaning at the mid-range price is expected to promote the industry to further break the circle and increase the volume. We remain optimistic about the volume increase of the industry next year.
Investment suggestion: buy rating.
The company's short-term income and profit growth are obvious, and there is good growth space for both main lines in the long run. The profit forecast is slightly adjusted according to the performance forecast. It is estimated that the profit of 21-23 years will be RMB 2.03 billion, 2.79 billion and 3.63 billion, with yoy + 217%, 37% and + 30%, corresponding to pe39, 28 and 22x. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
Supply chain problems such as shipping / chips worsened, and the sales of new products were lower than expected
