\u3000\u3000 Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) (300729)
Increase the extension of home scene, and steadily launch intelligent electric bed and intelligent lifting coffee table
Intelligent electric bed: the company's intelligent electric bed products may be divided into two categories. 1) intelligent lift bed, which is aimed at the elderly, rehabilitated patients and other customers. Its function is mainly to lift the head or tail to facilitate turning over. This type refers to statista, and the penetration rate in the United States is currently 11%. 2) The multi-functional lift bed is mainly aimed at the customers of multi tire small family. The suitable scene is that children raise the bed during the day for activities and lower the bed at night for easy rest; It is expected that this type of bed will have greater demand in cities with high population density.
Intelligent lifting tea table: the company also starts from the needs of urban people with high population density. It aims to solve the pain point that ordinary tea tables can only drink tea. It has launched a lifting tea table that can be used as a tea table to drink tea and a table to eat / work.
It is expected that the smart electric bed and lift coffee table will be launched successively in 22 years. We think this may be an important extension of Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp(300729) relying on the linear drive core technology in the home scene. On the one hand, it is to deepen the shaping of the company's smart home brand image; On the other hand, it is expected to increase customer unit price with the help of product portfolio and create new growth points of revenue.
The sea freight is high, and the profit side is waiting for the east wind
The company's products are mainly large pieces, and the proportion of sea freight in revenue is relatively high; In terms of sea freight, according to the CCFI comprehensive index, it has continued to rise since 2021. In 2021, Q3 accelerated to the top and Q4 fell slightly, but it remains high as a whole. The profit elasticity of the company largely depends on the trend of sea freight. In addition, the exchange rate also has a certain impact on the gross profit margin, but we predict that the negative impact will be weakened quarter by quarter.
Profit forecast and valuation
The growth impetus of the company comes from the two-way development of the smart and healthy home market outside China around the linear drive technology in a branded way. Overseas warehouse public service is also another growth highlight of the company under the catalysis of industrial dividend. Under the cross-border dividend & category dividend, we still maintain optimistic expectations for the 22-year revenue growth of the company. On the profit side, the recovery speed of net interest rate depends on the sea freight on the one hand, and is affected by the exchange rate on the other hand, but it is expected to improve quarter by quarter.
It is estimated that the company's revenue in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 will be 2.860/4.155/5.583 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 47.35% / 45.31% / 34.36%; The net profit was 191 / 284 / 508 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 12.21% / 48.93% / 78.67%. The current market value is RMB 5.703 billion, with a P / E ratio of 29.89/20.07/11.23 X. In the future, as the macro environment returns to normal (especially sea freight), the profitability of the company will have strong repair flexibility. The normal valuation center of the company should reflect the dividends of overseas e-commerce and smart and healthy home categories at the same time. With reference to the valuation system of brand enterprises, the current underestimation is obvious and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: repeated overseas epidemics, exchange rate, sea freight and raw material price fluctuation risk
