\u3000\u3000 Ninestar Corporation(002180) (002180)
Event: on January 21, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast: in 2021, the company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1.45-1.65 billion (simulating the full year net profit of 2021 with 100% share of Bento electronics belonging to the listed company), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.11-1.31 billion ( Ninestar Corporation(002180) holds 39.31% of Bento shares from January to September and 100% from October to December).
Domestic printing leader, with outstanding performance in the whole year. According to the announcement of the company, Ninestar Corporation(002180) completed the 100% equity delivery of bentu electronics on October 9, 2021 and consolidated the table in the fourth quarter. It is expected that Ninestar Corporation(002180) is expected to start a new journey in the global competitive strategy of China’s independent printer brands. According to the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1.11-1.31 billion in 2021 ( Ninestar Corporation(002180) holding Bento share is 39.31% from January to September and 100% from October to December), with a year-on-year increase of 644.28% – 778.39% according to the share of Ninestar Corporation(002180) 39.31% in 2020, and a year-on-year increase of 1162.16% – 1389.58% according to the mouth diameter excluding Bento in 2020. It is expected to realize a net profit of 550-820 million yuan ( Ninestar Corporation(002180) holding the share of Bento from January to September according to 39.31% and from October to December according to 100%), a year-on-year increase of 948.38% – 1463.04% according to the share of Ninestar Corporation(002180) 39.31% in 2020, and a year-on-year increase of 957.1% – 1476.04% according to 2020 excluding Bento. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company of analog bentu electronics, which belongs to 100% of the listed company in 2021, was RMB 1.45-1.65 billion, and the performance achieved rapid growth.
The layout of the whole industrial chain of “printer + consumables” is expected to continue to grow steadily. In the field of printers, according to CCID Consulting data, the global market share (by sales volume) of “Bento + Lexmark” laser printers ranked fourth in 2020. The dual brand synergy initially appeared and continued to cover high, medium and low-end product lines. However, Bento’s sales accounted for only 0.4% of the global laser printer market in 2020, with large growth space and high ceiling. According to the performance forecast, the operating revenue of independent brand bentu in 2021 was about 3.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%; The net profit was about 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 130%; The global shipments of Bento printers continued to grow. The sales volume of overseas printers increased by more than 60% year-on-year, and the sales volume of Chinese market increased by more than 50% year-on-year; The printer sales volume of the acquired brand Lexmark is expected to increase by more than 10% year-on-year in 2021 (the shortage of electronic components has delayed the rapid recovery of Lexmark printer sales); The operating revenue is expected to exceed US $2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of more than 7%. Under the data caliber of the management statement, the annual EBITDA in 2021 is expected to exceed US $270 million. According to the company’s announcement, on December 20, 2021, the fixed increase of RMB 5 billion will be implemented. It is intended to be used in Hefei printer and consumables production base, regional headquarters and R & D center projects, mainly for medium and high-performance laser printers, with Bento electronics as the main undertaking, which is expected to help the transformation of medium and high-end Bento printers; On December 23, 2021, the company plans to subscribe for us $290 million convertible bonds issued by the “Cayman joint venture” holding 100% equity of Lexmark international, which is expected to improve the profitability of Lexmark, so that it can not only obtain capital assistance, but also avoid premature dilution of equity. We believe that the printer business of the company is expected to continue to grow, benefiting from the high landscape of China’s information innovation market and overseas demand, the improvement of China’s household application penetration, the improvement of product level, localization substitution, the advantages of independent brands and other comprehensive factors. In the field of consumables, with the growth of printer demand, the company’s continuous technological innovation and the high gross profit brought by the printing consumables razor mode, the consumables business is expected to continue to bring stable cash flow to the company.
The spillover effect of printer master SOC appears, deepening the layout of general MCU field. According to the company’s announcement, in 2021, aipaike microelectronics is expected to have an operating revenue of more than 1.4 billion yuan, of which the operating revenue of its subsidiary Jihai semiconductor (chip in non printing industry) is about 300 million yuan, the overall net profit of aipaike microelectronics is about 680 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 30%, and the overall chip sales are expected to increase by more than 20%. Ninestar Corporation(002180) EPEC Microelectronics (including polar semiconductor) has cut into the field of IC design from general consumable chips, and the design ability of printer master SOC chip helps Bento brand’s core ability to be self-controlled; The general MCU is homologous with the SOC gene of the printer master. The company actively expands new energy, industrial control, automobile and other industries, and has reached stable cooperation and mass supply with well-known manufacturers (KONE elevator, Huichuan, Changhong, Midea, SAIC Wuling, Xiaopeng, great wall, etc.). Polar semiconductor has launched more than 10 new 32-bit MCU products in 2021, It is expected that in the first half of 2022, several 32-bit MCU chip products will be subject to vehicle regulation aec-q100 certification, while promoting iso26262 vehicle functional safety system certification and new product research and development. On October 28, 2021, aipaike microelectronics plans to invest a total of 2.2 billion yuan to build chip R & D related projects in Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) for high-end industrial general MCU / MPU chip projects, high-end automotive general MCU / MPU chip projects, industrial general signal chain data processing chip projects, and high-end printer main control SOC projects based on domestic embedded CPU. The chip business is expected to go to a higher level.
Investment suggestion: according to the calculation of Ninestar Corporation(002180) holding 39.31% of bentu shares from January to September and 100% from October to December, we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 22.805 billion yuan, 29.626 billion yuan and 35.255 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.233 billion yuan, 2.044 billion yuan and 2.87 billion yuan, 1.45 yuan and 2.03 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 60 times, 36 times and 26 times respectively, Maintain the “Buy-A” investment rating.
Risk warning: market development is less than expected risk; Risk that R & D progress is less than expected.
