\u3000\u3000 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Event: the company released the data of December business: the total revenue in December was 24.523 billion yuan, yoy + 57.14%, which was due to the merger of Kerry Logistics related business income. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 15.414 billion yuan, yoy + 8.77%; 938 million pieces of business completed, yoy + 8.31%; Single ticket income is 16.43 yuan, yoy + 0.43%; The supply chain business achieved a revenue of 9.109 billion yuan, yoy + 534.77%.
In 2021, the company achieved a total revenue of 206.094 billion yuan, yoy + 35.82%, and the annual revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan. Among them, the express business achieved a revenue of 169.773 billion yuan, yoy + 17.38%; Completed 10.534 billion pieces of business, yoy + 29.46%; Thanks to the increase in the proportion of preferential e-commerce parts, the single ticket revenue decreased by 9.33% year-on-year to 16.12 yuan, and the decline continued to narrow; The supply chain business achieved a revenue of 36.311 billion yuan, yoy + 411.13%.
The annual business volume exceeded 10 billion pieces for the first time: in December, the company completed 938 million pieces of express transportation business, with a year-on-year increase of 8.31%, slightly lower than the industry growth rate (10.7%), mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of social retail sales and online shopping retail sales in December, as well as the company's proactive strategic balance, optimization of product and customer structure, reduction in the number of low-value customers and other factors. In 2021, the company completed 10.534 billion business units, with a year-on-year increase of 29.46%, exceeding 10 billion for the first time. The company's direct operating system and aviation resources have laid the foundation for time effective service. On this basis, through the coordination of resources such as four networks financing, aviation, site and transportation capacity, the company continues to expand economic express, express, cold transportation, medicine and intra city express delivery services. Considering that the market's requirements for express logistics service quality will continue to improve in the future, and the demand for differentiated products will lead to greater incremental space, the company has leading brand advantages and service quality, and is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the trend of competing for quality in the industry.
Single ticket revenue achieved positive growth year-on-year and month on month: the single ticket revenue of SF express business in December was 16.43 yuan, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.43% and a month on month increase of 3.89%. Benefiting from the inflection point of policy supervision, the industry price war has come to an end for the time being, and the single ticket price of head enterprises is obviously stabilizing and rising. Relying on the advantages of timeliness, SF has continuously improved the product stratification, formulated targeted market strategies, optimized the product structure and improved the pricing ability of products. It is expected that the single ticket price is expected to continue to increase.
New business maintained strong growth: after Kerry Logistics was incorporated into SF system, SF supply chain and international business revenue maintained a strong growth momentum. In December 2021, the operating revenue reached 9.109 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 534.77%. The acquisition of Kerry Logistics will effectively supplement the company's resources and capabilities in international freight forwarding and customs clearance, and further strengthen SF's competitive advantage in international cross-border freight transportation by combining SF's own international cargo and aviation resources and the target company's extensive international freight forwarding network.
Profit forecast: the easing of price war under strict policy supervision, the continuous optimization of the company's product structure, the improvement of product pricing ability, cost control and automation equipment, and the gradual promotion of four networks financing will help the company consolidate its operation chassis, consolidate its existing competitive advantage, and its performance is expected to continue to improve. It is estimated that in 2021 and 2022, the net profit will be 4.3 billion yuan and 6.4 billion yuan, yoy respectively - 41% and + 48%, and the EPS will be 0.87 yuan and 1.3 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE of a share price is 77 times and 52 times respectively. Investment suggestions for interval operation are given.
Risk tips: business growth slows down, price competition is fierce, new business development is less than expected, and the production of Ezhou airport is less than expected
