\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
Conclusions and suggestions:
Performance summary: it is predicted that the annual revenue will be between 19.9 billion and 21.37 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 35% to 45%, and the net profit will be between 2.64 billion and 2.85 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 28% to 38%. Based on this calculation, 4q achieved a revenue of 5.5 billion to 6.97 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% to 39.2%, and recorded a net profit of 530 million to 730 million, a year-on-year increase of – 14% to 20%. The performance of 4q company was better than we expected.
With the continuous rise of raw material costs and the downturn of the industry, the company’s annual performance achieved strong growth. We believe that it mainly benefited from the significant comprehensive advantages in channels, products, origin layout and so on. In 2021, the company also creatively put forward the new model of “whole family customization”, opened up a new sales path in the industry, and the packaged large home business continued to grow, driving the steady growth of the company’s performance. In the first three quarters of 2021, the growth rates of the company’s cabinets, wardrobe, bathroom and wooden doors were 30.6%, 50.5%, 38% and 72.5% respectively. It is expected that the wardrobe and packaged supporting products will maintain rapid growth in the fourth quarter; In addition, the bulk business was also carried out smoothly, with a growth rate of 44% in the first three quarters, and the total number of terminal stores of various brands reached 7461, which continued to be encrypted.
In the previous three quarters, the period expense rates were 21.9%, 15.2% and 12.9% respectively, which decreased compared with the same period of the previous year. We believe that under the cost pressure, although the ex factory price was fine tuned in July, the gross profit margin is still under certain pressure. It is expected that the company will maintain accurate cost control in the fourth quarter, improve the effect of economies of scale, reduce costs and increase efficiency.
At present, due to loose macro policies, the industry boom is expected to be repaired. We believe that the company will continue to consolidate its competitive advantage, further improve its market share and achieve steady growth in performance.
The profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the net profits from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.76 billion, 3.35 billion and 4.02 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 34%, 21% and 20.3% respectively. The EPS is 4.54 yuan, 5.49 yuan and 6.61 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 32.5 times, 27 times and 22 times respectively. The current valuation is reasonable and the “buy” investment proposal is maintained.
Risk tip: the industry boom is less than expected, the cost pressure is rising, and the terminal sales are less than expected
