\u3000\u3000 Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) (300144)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 258-358 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year (the same period in 2020 is -1.752 billion yuan), and deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 208-308 million yuan, reversing the loss year-on-year (the same period in 2020 is -1.768 billion yuan). In a single quarter, the net loss attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 75-175 million yuan (YoY + 90.75% - 96.05%), and the net loss not attributable to the parent company is 62-162 million yuan (YoY + 91.37% - 96.69%).
The epidemic situation in many places in China has been disturbed repeatedly, and many scenic spots are still closed. Since the middle and late October, the epidemic situation has been repeated in some areas, and the epidemic prevention and control policy in the scenic spot has not been relaxed. Jiuzhai qianguqing has closed since early November, Songcheng qianguqing has closed since mid December, Lijiang qianguqing has closed at the end of December, Zhang Jia Jie Tourism Group Co.Ltd(000430) qianguqing and Xi'an qianguqing have not yet opened; Shanghai Songcheng has been closed in winter since November 1 and is expected to reappear in the spring of 2022. The number of performances of the main show has been greatly reduced, which has a direct impact on the main performance industry of the company. Since 2022, the epidemic has continued to blossom at multiple points, and the expectation of local new year has increased, which has dragged down the recovery process of culture and tourism. The epidemic is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry.
The mode of performing arts park is diversified, and its operation shows resilience. Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the company continued to deepen the mode of performing arts park, forming a new situation led by the eternal situation, supplemented by all kinds of small and medium-sized plays and interspersed with all kinds of activities, demonstrating business resilience. In the summer, the company launched an outdoor version of eternal love, and the number of people receiving wonderful night activities in the whole year increased by 384.66% year-on-year; Among consumers, the post-90s account for more than 60% and the post-80s account for nearly 95%, meeting the needs of young groups and forming an effective supplement to limited indoor performances.
Shanghai Songcheng opens the growth space of urban performing arts, and the model of performing arts Valley can be expected in the future. On April 29, 2021, Shanghai Songcheng opened successfully. With its superior location advantages and rich repertoire content, it attracted passenger flow and performed well. While continuously polishing the stock projects, the project reserves are rich. Xitang and Zhuhai projects create the performance Valley model to further open the long-term growth space.
Profit forecast and investment rating: since the second half of 2021, the epidemic has continued to repeat, which has dragged down the recovery process of the cultural tourism market. We lowered the revenue from 2021 to 2023 from 1.394/29.82/4.122 billion yuan to 1.032/23.52/3.507 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.4% / 127.9% / 49.1%; The net profit attributable to the parent decreased from 522 / 1263 / 1809 million yuan to 308 / 908 / 1488 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 117.6% / 194.4% / 63.9%. The corresponding dynamic PE is 135 / 46 / 28 times. The company has a high-quality and scarce business model, is optimistic about the company's value for a long time, and maintains the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the repeated epidemic has led to macroeconomic fluctuations, slow recovery of the culture and tourism industry, and the landing and operation of new projects are not as expected by the company.
