\u3000\u3000 Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) (300973)
Event: the company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual revenue in 2021 will be 2.78-2.85 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.62% – 57.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 275-295 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.49% – 27.10%. It is estimated that the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be between 260-280 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.13% – 23.98%.
Continuous verification of high growth, fast and large quantities of frozen and baked products. The company expects to achieve a revenue of 2.78-2.85 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 53.62% – 57.49%. In a single quarter, the revenue growth rate of 2021q1 / Q2 / Q3 company is 130.54% / 60.59% / 33.84% respectively, and the revenue of 21q4 is expected to be 819-889 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 34.4% – 45.9%. The company’s annual revenue maintained a high growth rate, mainly due to: 1) frozen baked goods maintained a high growth rate, including egg tarts, doughnuts, sweet potatoes, frozen cakes and other large frozen baked items continued to be in large quantities, and the production capacity was insufficient in peak seasons. 2) Thanks to the rapid expansion of Sam’s stores, the company’s business supermarket channel revenue increased rapidly.
The annual performance was in line with expectations, and the price increase alleviated the pressure on the cost side. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 275-295 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 18.49% – 27.10%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 77-97 million yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5% – 32.8%. The company implemented the excess performance incentive scheme and equity incentive plan, which had an impact on the annual net profit of about 35 million yuan. After excluding the above factors, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 310-330 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 33.6% – 42.2%. The annual profit growth rate was slower than the income growth rate, mainly due to the rise in the cost of raw materials such as oils and fats and the impact of changes in product structure. The company raised the price of low margin products in Q4 in 2021 and tarts and cream products in January 2022, with a price increase range of 3% – 8%. The price increase is conducted smoothly and is expected to absorb the cost pressure.
Driven by product + channel + capacity, high growth will continue. On the product side, tarts and doughnuts grew steadily, and they are still out of stock in the peak season. With the rapid growth of new products such as cassava and frozen cake, it is gradually set up in cake shops from commercial supermarkets. Frozen dough, Dafu and other new products have great growth potential. On the channel side, the growth rate of supermarkets represented by Sam’s store is bright. With the expansion of the number of Sam’s stores, the sales scale of the company’s business supermarket channel is expected to continue to expand. On the production capacity side, Henan factory put into operation the doughnut production line in 21q4, and the subsequent grape tart and frozen cake production line landed in 22q1. In addition, Zhejiang factory is expected to be put into operation in 22h1, and the production capacity of Guangdong factory is also expected to be improved. In addition, the company announced that it would build a headquarters production base in Zengcheng, Guangzhou, with a production capacity of about 6-7 years. After the production capacity year (including the production capacity year), the annual output value would not be less than 3.115 billion yuan, reflecting the company’s confidence in long-term development.
Profit forecast and Valuation: it is estimated that the revenue growth rate from 2021 to 2023 will be 55.52%, 29.05% and 25.06%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company will be 23.03%, 34.05% and 30.54% (after deducting the influence of equity incentive, the growth rate of net profit attributable to parent company will be 33.13%, 44.05% and 21.50%), and EPS will be 1.69, 2.26 and 2.95 yuan, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects consumption, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
