\u3000\u3000 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 2 ~ 2.05 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 211.9% ~ 219.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 1.85 ~ 1.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.4% ~ 257.8%. According to this calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 of 2021 is 670 ~ 720 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 71% ~ 84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit was 640 ~ 690 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 73% ~ 87%.
Deepen the dual brand drive, and the independent brand business grows rapidly. The company continued to deepen the two wheel drive strategy of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) + Tianke, and successfully launched a variety of home services Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and intelligent life appliances. Under the background of continuous capacity expansion of clean appliances, with leading product power and comprehensive channel layout, the company's Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and Tianke brand revenue achieved rapid growth. According to the data of ovicloud, the online sales of 2021q4 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) / Tianke were 1.9/1.41 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 37.6% / 142.8%.
Profitability continues to be optimized. The company's outstanding performance growth is due to the rapid growth of the company's own brand sales driven by new products on the one hand, and the optimization of the company's profitability on the other hand. In September 2021, the company launched its annual flagship product X1 series, priced at more than 4500 yuan. The increase in the proportion of high-end products represented by X1 series promoted the upward movement of the company's product sales price center, and the company's comprehensive gross profit margin increased significantly. According to the data of ovicloud, the average sales prices of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) and Tianke products from October to December 2021 were 3221 / 3597 / 3201 yuan and 3256 / 3418 / 3463 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 68% / 83% / 65% and 9% / 15% / 10% respectively.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. As a leading enterprise of clean electrical appliances, the company will fully enjoy the dividend of the expansion of clean electrical appliances industry by virtue of brand advantages and R & D advantages. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.53/4.82/6.40 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials may fluctuate sharply, the sales of new products are less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies the risk.
