\u3000\u3000 Ninestar Corporation(002180) (002180)
Core view
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the whole year of 21 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be RMB 1.11-1.31 billion (including the net profit from January to September of 21 years and the net profit from 100% equity of October to December of 21 years belonging to 39.31% equity of the listed company), an increase of 644-778% (based on the retroactively adjusted 20-year net profit of the consolidated Bento of RMB 149 million). The net profit attributable to the parent company of 100% consolidated statement in simulation chart 21 is RMB 1.45-1.65 billion.
Bento's products are highly competitive and have sustained high growth: after preliminary accounting, Bento's operating revenue increased by more than 70% to about 3.9 billion yuan in 21 years, and its net profit increased by more than 130% to about 680 million yuan. Bento has further expanded its product lines of A4 color laser printer and A4 medium and high-speed black-and-white laser printer, and the enrichment of high-end product lines is also expected to improve the company's profitability. The sales volume of China's market has increased by more than 50% in 21 years. With the industrial users promoting the localization of printers and the improvement of bentu channel construction, China's sales volume is expected to continue to grow at a high rate. With the continuous expansion of products with global competitiveness and overseas business scope, Bento's overseas printer sales increased by more than 60%. The company plans to invest 5 billion yuan to build a production base, regional headquarters and R & D center with an annual output of 2 million printers and supporting consumables in Hefei, so as to help the company hit the goal of 25% of the global laser printer market share within five years.
Lexmark reversed the adversity and the financial expenses are expected to be reduced: the operating revenue of Lexmark increased by more than 7% to more than US $2.1 billion in 21 years, and the EBITDA exceeded US $270 million (the data caliber of Lexmark's management statement). Lexmark has supplied long-term orders from enterprise strategic partners in batches, and achieved a printer sales increase of more than 10% under the background of 21 years of chip shortage. The company previously announced that it would jointly invest no more than US $670 million in Lexmark with Gree financial investment and major shareholder senna, which is expected to reduce the financial expenses of Lexmark. The continuous decline in the amortization of intangible assets caused by the merger and acquisition of Lexmark is also expected to improve the company's profitability.
Expand the field of chip application: in the past 21 years, the chip sales of aipaike increased by more than 20%, and the operating revenue exceeded 1.4 billion yuan, of which the operating revenue of Jihai, a subsidiary focusing on non printing chips, was about 300 million yuan, and the net profit of aipaike increased by nearly 30% to about 680 million yuan. In addition to forming upstream and downstream cooperation similar to Huawei and Hisilicon in the printing chip, the company actively expands the applications of new energy, industrial control and automobile, and has reached stable cooperation with KONE elevator, Huichuan, Changhong, Midea, SAIC Wuling, Xiaopeng and great wall, and supplied in batches. Jihai launched more than 10 32-bit MCU new products in 21 years. It is expected that aec-q100 vehicle regulation certification of several 32-bit MCU will be carried out in the first half of 22 years, and iso26262 vehicle functional safety system certification and new product research and development will be successfully promoted. The company plans to invest 2.2 billion yuan to build a Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) chip R & D project with 1000-1500 people. Its products include high-end industrial general MCU / MPU, high-end automotive general MCU / MPU, industrial general signal chain data processing chip and embedded CPU, high-end printer master SOC, and the annual operating revenue is expected to reach 1-2 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the earnings per share of the company will be 0.79/1.45/1.99 yuan in 21-23 years respectively (the original forecast for 21-23 years is 0.80/1.12/1.60 yuan, which mainly increases about 330 million share capital, reduces the income forecast of Lexmark, adds the income forecast of Bento, slightly reduces the expense rate and tax rate, and increases the profit and loss of minority shareholders). According to the valuation level of 45 times of the comparable company in 22 years, the corresponding target price is 65.23 yuan, Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
Goodwill impairment risk; Industry demand is less than expected; The risk of M & a falling short of expectations; Exchange gain / loss risk.
