\u3000\u3000 Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) (002064)
The performance forecast for 2021 is in line with expectations, and the leading performance may hit a new record, maintaining the "buy" rating
According to the company's announcement, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.850-8.100 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 244.43% - 255.40%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company hit a record high. Corresponding to the Q4 single quarter of 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.723-1.973 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.04% - 90.13% and a month on month decrease of 24.27% - 13.29%. Considering the current downturn of the spandex industry, we lowered the profit forecast for 2021-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 7.966 (- 0.49), 6.755 (- 14.21) and 7.269 (- 1008) billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 172 (- 0.01), 1.46 (- 0.30) and 1.57 (- 0.22) yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 5.9, 6.9 and 6.4 times respectively. As the leader of spandex, The cost advantage is obvious, and the production of 300000 tons of spandex will be expanded in the future. We are optimistic about the long-term growth of the company and maintain the "buy" rating of the company.
In the second half of 2021, the production capacity of the spandex industry was put into focus, the boom was down, and the company's Q4 performance decreased month on month
Since the second half of 2021, the production capacity of the spandex industry has been put into focus, including 40000 tons of new production capacity of the company, 20000 tons of Zhuji Huahai and Xinxiang Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000949) 3 30000 tons. Affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption and high sea freight, the textile and clothing orders are less than expected, and the demand for spandex is weak. At the same time, the high price of BDO led to the month on month increase of PTMEG price and the month on month drop of spandex price difference. In 2021, the average price of Q4 spandex was 73511 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of - 5.29%; The average price difference of spandex was 39086 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of - 18.69%. The tight supply of spandex since 2021 has covered up part of the demand. In the future, the new production capacity of spandex will be put into operation, and the demand growth may be further accelerated. Although there will be more production capacity of spandex in the future, restricted by the winding head, the new production capacity of spandex is limited every year, so we are optimistic about the long-term prosperity of spandex.
The price difference of Q4 adipic acid has improved, and the expansion of nylon and PBAT is expected to drive the prosperity of adipic acid upward
According to our calculation, the average price of Q4 adipic acid is 12741 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 18.12%; The average price difference was 6885 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 57.92%. With the rise of pure benzene, maintenance of some production capacity and partial launch of PBAT production capacity, the profit margin of adipic acid has improved. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, in 2022, PBAT may increase production capacity by 800000-1 million tons, which is expected to drive the demand for adipic acid by 288000-360000 tons. In the future, with the production capacity of PBAT and nylon 66 put into operation, the prosperity of adipic acid industry is expected to rise, and the profitability will continue to improve. At present, the company's adipic acid production capacity is 735000 tons, which is the leader in the adipic acid industry. It is expected to benefit from the upward boom of adipic acid in the future.
Risk tips: the construction progress of the project is less than expected, the product price has fallen sharply, the macro-economy has declined, etc.
