\u3000\u3000 Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) (300759)
Event: on January 21, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 7.34-7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.0% – 46.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.58-1.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.0% – 45.0%; The non net profit deducted was 1.28-1.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 60% – 70.0%; The adjusted non IFRS net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.39-1.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.0% – 41.0%.
The performance slightly exceeded expectations, and the single quarter revenue, net profit attributable to parent, non deduction and non IFRS net profit attributable to parent hit a record high. In 2021, the company expects to achieve a median revenue of about 7.42 billion yuan (+ 44.5%), a median net profit attributable to the parent company of about 1.64 billion yuan (+ 40.0%), a median net profit deducted from non IFRS of about 1.32 billion yuan (+ 65.0%), and an adjusted median net profit attributable to the parent company of about 1.45 billion yuan (+ 36.0%), which continues to perform well. Benefiting from the rapid growth of the industry and the strong competitive advantage of the company, we expect the company’s laboratory services and small molecule cdmo business to continue to maintain rapid growth. Quarter by quarter, the median revenue of 2021q4 is about 2.12 billion yuan (+ 36.8%), the median return to parent company is about 600 million yuan (+ 56.9%), the median net profit deducted from non IFRS is about 390 million yuan (+ 100.0%), and the median return to parent company net profit of non IFRS is about 400 million yuan (+ 32.2%), which continues to hit a record high. We expect that ① the scale effect will bring about the continuous improvement of operation efficiency and profitability; ② The company continued to improve its capital management ability and brought additional income. In addition, due to the fact that the average exchange rate of US dollar against RMB in 2021 decreased by about 6.5% compared with that in 2020, which disturbed the company’s revenue and profits, we expect the real performance to be stronger after excluding the impact of exchange rate.
The integrated and multi therapy platform has significant competitive advantages, and the four sectors are making continuous efforts, which is expected to promote the continuous high growth of the overall business. 1) Laboratory services: with the continuous release of the scale advantages of chemical and biological sciences and the continuous improvement of the proportion of Biological Sciences, the profitability of laboratory services is expected to continue to increase. 2) Small molecule cdmo: the CMC of the company has strong technical strength and rich project reserves. With the gradual implementation of epitaxial and endogenous commercial production capacity, the proportion of projects in the later clinical stage continues to increase, and the small molecule cdmo business is expected to accelerate its growth. 3) Clinical research service: with the integration of integrated clinical research service platform gradually completed, detaimai, Nanjing Sirui and liansida complement each other, and are expected to maintain rapid growth in the future. 4) Macromolecular and cellular gene therapy: the company built a C & gt service platform integrating R & D and production by investing in accugengroup, acquiring absorption and ABL, and built an end-to-end macromolecular R & D and production platform by extending macromolecular discovery and research services from laboratory services and building a macromolecular production base in Ningbo. With the continuous improvement of the multi therapy platform, it is expected to continuously contribute new increment to the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 7.030 billion yuan, 9.359 billion yuan and 12.392 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 36.94%, 33.13% and 32.40%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.566 billion yuan, 2.067 billion yuan and 2.720 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 33.60%, 31.94% and 31.62%. As one of the leading cro + CMO enterprises in China, the company has significant advantages in integrated service platform. In the future, with the continuous improvement of end-to-end and multi therapy service platform, it is expected to drive the continuous and rapid growth of performance and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: the risk that the R & D investment of innovative drug enterprises does not meet the expectations, the risk that the new business progress is not as expected, the risk of deterioration of the competitive environment and the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.
