\u3000\u3000 Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (603008)
Independent brands are intensively cultivated, and Q4 is expected to maintain a beautiful performance
The median growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is 36% and the median growth rate of net profit deducted from non parent company is 20%. Considering that the overall marketing investment of the company has increased in the past 21 years, and the rising price of raw materials has dragged down the profit margin of OEM business year-on-year, we estimate that the growth rate of 21q4 revenue of the company is 20-30%. Among them, it is expected that the retail of independent brands will still grow by more than 30%, the OEM business will grow steadily, and the hotel engineering business will decline slightly (mainly due to the strategic shrinkage of wooden decoration business). In October 21, the company officially launched star Yang Yang as the new spokesperson, and entered the college students' market (2.2 million college students planted grass in the first school season), so as to seize the mind of the main group of house buyers in advance, continuously improve the brand influence and lay the foundation for 22 years of growth.
Offline high-speed stores, e-commerce continues to lead, but the sofa is getting better and better
(1) offline channels: dealers have strong profitability and strong willingness to open stores. Compared with the beginning of the year, 21q1-q3 has a net increase of 653 stores, reaching 4296, and 279 new stores have been opened in single Q3. In the past 22 years, the company maintained the plan of 800-1000 new stores, and continued to promote the laying of new channels such as home decoration and home appliance stores. At the same time, the improvement of customer unit value (bed: bedstead: sofa: the joint rate of supporting products) is expected to drive the growth of the same store.
(2) e-commerce channels: the revenue of 21q1-q3 is 684 million (year-on-year + 70%), the total sales of 618 whole network is 362 million yuan (+ 145%), and the total sales of shuang11 whole network exceeds 800 million, ranking first for many years.
(3) high increase in sales of Keshang sofa series: the Keshang sofa independently developed by the company has a price close to the people, matches with Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) mid-range series fasiman, shares the mattress passenger flow, and is expected to contribute to new growth drivers.
Equity incentive shows confidence, furniture goes to the countryside is good, sinking demand is released
In December, the company launched the employee stock ownership plan (accounting for 2.9% of the total share capital) & stock option incentive scheme (accounting for 1.03% of the total share capital). The participants ranged from 42 core middle-level executives to 167 middle-level backbones, with a wide range of incentives and strengthened interest binding growth confidence. In December, the national development and Reform Commission put forward the policy of furniture going to the countryside. The mattress has a strong standard product attribute and the township market penetration is low. The company also actively responded to the call and launched the formulation of the special plan for furniture going to the countryside. At the same time, it has settled the market in advance through the "Ximian" products a few years ago, and established a better brand image and customer base in low-level cities, which is expected to benefit the most.
Profit forecast and valuation
The mattress industry has large capacity, fast growth and excellent pattern. The main retail industry of Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) has excellent growth quality, accelerated share and continued to be recommended. We expect the revenue of 21-23 years to be 7.643 billion (+ 35.91%), 9.68 billion (+ 26.66%), 11.903 billion (+ 22.96%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 556 million (+ 77.32%), 723 million (+ 30.18%), 934 million (+ 29.07%), corresponding to PE of 25.2x, 19.36x and 15x respectively, with outstanding growth. The layout is recommended!
Risk tips
The price of raw materials has risen sharply and the industry competition has intensified
