\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) (688155)
New energy vehicle module / pack equipment leader, with a compound profit growth rate of 23% in recent three years
The company is a high-quality enterprise of intelligent equipment for new energy vehicles. It is mainly engaged in intelligent automation equipment for new energy vehicles (the revenue in 2020 accounts for 74%, and the order is expected to account for more than 90% in 2021), intelligent automation equipment for fuel vehicles, intelligent manufacturing software, etc. New energy vehicle module / pack is the core product (the revenue accounts for about 80% - 90% of new energy vehicle automation equipment). In 2021, the company won the title of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) "excellent supplier of the year".
The module / pack automation production line has a broad market, and five factors drive the company's performance to speed up:
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that the market scale of module / pack line in China will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 55%. Driving forces for growth: 1) the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 11.46 million in 2025; 2) At present, China's module / pack automation rate is only about 40%, which is expected to continue to increase under the influence of policies, labor cost improvement, industrial structure adjustment and other factors, and is expected to increase to 80% by 2025.
From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) At present, the medium and high-end market of China's module / pack line is still dominated by foreign capital. The company is a leading enterprise of domestic brands. We estimate that the company's market share in China will be about 25% in 2020. 2) New energy vehicles in Europe and the United States are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%. The company has set up two subsidiaries in North America and Germany and overseas offices in the Czech Republic. Globalization is expected to make a breakthrough.
Breakthroughs in new products and new fields. Relay power lithium battery module / pack line, the company has rich reserves in energy storage, fuel cell assembly line and other fields, and has completed the delivery of relevant projects of important customers.
Breakthroughs in new fields, obvious advantages in customers, technology and service, and it is expected that the strong will remain strong in the future
1) customer advantages: the company's main customers include Volkswagen China, brilliance BMW, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Volkswagen Skoda, ZF, Mercedes Benz BMW and other leading companies in vehicle, power battery and auto parts at home and abroad. 2) Technical advantages: the automation rate of the company's module production line and pack production line can reach 95% and 90% respectively, which is far higher than the industry average level and can meet the requirements of German and other high-end customers; 3) Service advantage: with obvious first mover advantage and rich project experience, it can provide high-quality services covering the whole process of the project.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.11/27.1/3.85 billion respectively; The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.9/3.0/420 million respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 50% / 223% / 41% and a compound growth rate of 90% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 98 / 30 / 21 times respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Investment risk: the industry competition intensifies, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
