\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
2021 performance express announcement: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the express notice. It is expected that the total operating revenue of 2021e will increase by 32.0% year-on-year to RMB 136.32 billion (about 6.7% higher than our forecast), and the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 26.5% year-on-year to RMB 6.78 billion (about 3.8% lower than our forecast), The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of non profits increased by 11.8% year-on-year to RMB 4.29 billion (corresponding to the net profit of single vehicle after deduction of Non Profits of 4q21e decreased by 65% year-on-year / 48% month on month to RMB 1602). 4q21e performance and the number of employees are related to salary increase / year-end bonus expense accrual, Euler user charging equity accrual, equity incentive expense accrual and other factors.
Multi brand force, decisive battle 2022e: the total sales volume of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in 2021 increased by 15.2% year-on-year to 1281000 vehicles. From the perspective of 2022e’s major brand segmentation, 1) Euler brand ballet cat / lightning cat / punk cat and salon machine brand Jialong are positioned at RMB 150000-300000 and high-end markets respectively, so as to realize the full coverage of BEV mainstream price band (the launched white cat / black cat / good cat is positioned at the market below RMB 150000); 2) Optimistic about the growth prospect of 2022e Chinese plug-in and mixing market, as well as the market competitiveness and sales climbing trend of wey brand Mocha / latte / macchido dhtphev; 3) The demand for tank brand is good (the management has guided that the total undelivered orders of 300 + 500 tanks are about 150000), and is optimistic about the growth prospect of tank brand sales driven by the improvement of chip shortage and the listing of 500 new models; 4) It is expected that pickup trucks and Haval brands may be boosted by replenishment and the listing of new models to maintain steady growth in sales.
Build a multi-dimensional product matrix to realize differentiated product belt: we are optimistic about the company’s 1) global layout, the positioning of self-study of the whole stack of automatic assisted driving, the reform of enterprise organization mechanism and the transformation mode with users as the core; 2) In the process of intelligent electrification transformation, multi-dimensional and clear product matrix layout and positioning from brand to series and then to models; 3) FeMo technology is based on the technical reserve and planning promotion prospect of automatic assisted driving. We expect that the precise positioning of user segments + the introduction of intelligent electrification functions and the acceleration of model iteration cycle are expected to drive the steady rise of ASP, and the scale effect will drive the decline of single vehicle production cost (vs. the continuous expansion of R & D investment). We judge that great wall is in the head camp of the transformation of traditional automobile enterprises in terms of power system technology innovation and automatic driving promotion, and is expected to be one of the traditional automobile enterprises most likely to succeed in the transformation of intelligent electrification.
Maintain the “overweight” rating of H shares and the “overweight” rating of a shares: in view of the fluctuations in the cost and price of raw materials and the differences in the cost structure between electric vehicles and fuel vehicles, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 2021e / 2022e / 2023e was reduced by 4% / 2% / 1% to RMB 6.78 billion / 10.62 billion / 14.06 billion respectively. In view of the marginal improvement prospect corresponding to the replenishment driven by the improvement of 2022e chip shortage and the boost of new models, maintain the “overweight” rating of H shares and the “overweight” rating of a shares.
Risk warning: chip shortage mitigation / replenishment is less than expected; The launch and climbing of new models are less than expected; Increase in R & D expenses; Accrual of equity incentive and other expenses; Rising prices of raw materials; Repeated outbreaks; Market and financial risks, etc.
