\u3000\u3000 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) (000933)
The flexibility of performance was greatly released, and the provision for impairment was carried out with light weight. Maintain "buy" rating
The company released the performance forecast. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.11 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 767%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 3.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3503%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 810 million yuan, down 3.4% month on month. In 2021, the high prosperity of coal and aluminum dual main industries led to a high increase in annual performance, but Q4 performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the provision of large asset impairment. Excluding impairment factors, the actual performance of the company may reach more than 5 billion yuan, and the performance elasticity of coal and aluminum has been greatly released. Considering the upward movement of the price center of coal and aluminum and the centralized impairment to optimize the asset quality, the company's high profit is expected to continue. According to the performance forecast, we adjusted the profit forecast for 2021 and maintained the forecast for 2022-2023. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021-2023 will be 31.1 (previous value of 35.5) / 55.1/6.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 767% / 77% / 9%; EPS is 1.3 (previous value 91.59) / 2.47/2.69 yuan, corresponding to 7.4 / 4.2 / 3.8 times of the current share price PE. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Q4 single season coal price increases, electrolytic aluminum or cost pressure
Electrolytic aluminum business: Q4 aluminum price is high, and the cost may increase. According to the company's announcement, Yunnan hydropower aluminum project is gradually put into operation, contributing an increase of 400000 tons. In terms of price, the annual aluminum price rose sharply year-on-year in 2021. The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd. was 18898 yuan / ton, up 33% year-on-year. Although the aluminum price in 2021q4 fell, the average price in a single quarter was 20075 yuan / ton, and Q3 remained basically flat (Mom - 2.1%) and remained high. The company's electrolytic aluminum adopts the market-based pricing model to fully benefit from the dividend of high aluminum price. In terms of cost, Q4 raw materials and power costs may be under pressure in a single quarter: according to wind data, the market price of Q4 alumina increased by 27.4% month on month; Yunnan development and Reform Commission cancelled the preferential policy of electricity price in October and adopted market-oriented transaction pricing, resulting in a large increase in power cost. Coal business: Q4 coal price increases, which is conducive to the release of good performance. Q4 under the background of guaranteed supply, the company's coal output may be released smoothly. In terms of price, the average price of Q4 Henan anthracite and lean coal in a single quarter increased by 42% / 26% month on month respectively. Considering that the company's coal price follows the market, it can fully enjoy the release of performance flexibility brought by the rise of coal price.
Coal, electricity and aluminum businesses are subject to large impairment, and asset quality is optimized
According to the company's announcement, in 2021, a total of 3.44 billion yuan of asset impairment was withdrawn, and the performance is expected to be reduced by 2.68 billion yuan, including lower than expected output and higher cost of damoling mine, hekuang mine and Longyuan mine (1.364 billion yuan); Bankruptcy reorganization of subsidiary Huiyuan aluminum (754 million yuan); Yongcheng aluminum plant of the headquarters (542 million yuan); Shenhuo power generation, a subsidiary (705 million yuan); Idle equipment and materials (78 million yuan). It is estimated that the total amount of Q4 or new impairment is 1.46 billion yuan, affecting the single quarter performance of 1.07 billion yuan. The past two years are at the stage of business optimization of the company. After large impairment, low-profit assets are gradually cleared, and the asset quality is optimized. In the future, it is expected to significantly reduce the depreciation cost and help the company pack light.
Liangbei mine's production expansion contributes to the increment of coal and pays attention to the progress of re production of Yunnan aluminum project
In terms of coal, Liangbei mineral can increase its capacity from 900000 tons to 2.4 million tons through technical transformation in Q3. According to the information of the company's interactive platform, the output is expected to reach 110 / 180 / 2.4 million tons in 2021-2023, which is expected to contribute to the performance of coal increment thickening. In terms of electrolytic aluminum, the tight power supply situation in Yunnan has eased since 2021q4. After the wet season, the capacity utilization rate of Yunnan aluminum project is expected to gradually recover, and the remaining 150000 tons of capacity that has not been put into operation may be put into operation. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the progress of battery foil certification of aluminum foil project.
Risk tip: the price of coal and aluminum fell more than expected; Risk of coal mine shutdown and reduction; The progress of aluminum recovery in Yunnan is less than expected
