\u3000\u3000 Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (603833)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. The company expects to achieve revenue of 19.9-21.37 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 35% – 45% at the same time, net profit attributable to parent company of 2.64-2.85 billion yuan, an increase of 28% – 38% at the same time, and deduction of non net profit of 2.48-2.67 billion yuan, an increase of 28% – 38% at the same time; In a single quarter, the company expects 21q4 to achieve a revenue of 5.497-6.971 billion yuan, an increase of 9.8% – 39.2%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 527-733 million yuan, an increase of – 14% to 19.7%, and a deduction of non net profit of 463-657 million yuan, an increase of – 15.5% to 19.9%. Performance forecast corresponds to 21q4 revenue and return to parent company
In the fourth quarter, the revenue grew steadily, and the profit was affected by the market competition of raw materials and engineering business. According to the calculation of the performance forecast center, the revenue growth rate of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 company in a single quarter was 130.7% / 38.6% / 30.1% / 24.5% respectively, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was 340% / 30.2% / 14.6% / 2.8%. According to the terminal research, the retail channel is stable, the Q4 packaging performance is good, the overall order receiving potential energy continues, and the growth of bulk channels slows down due to the disturbance of the real estate level. In terms of profitability, according to the calculation of the performance forecast center, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 13.3% (- 0.7pct.), The net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is expected to be 10.1%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.1pct, The month on month ratio was -7.7pct.
The steady growth of retail channels highlights the leading resilience. Retail: it is good to receive orders in the whole package. We are optimistic about the continuous volume of the whole package channel in 2022. 21q1-3 retail channel achieved a revenue of 11.626 billion yuan, an increase of 49% at the same time. Benefiting from the high-speed and large-scale volume of wardrobe and packaged channels, Q4 retail channels are expected to maintain steady growth. Bulk: Q4 bulk orders are expected to fluctuate due to the disturbance of the real estate level. The bulk channel revenue of 21q1-3 company was 2.634 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 44%. The company deepened the headquarters + service provider model, focused on high-quality real estate customers, and the gross profit margin of Q3 business stabilized month on month. Disturbed by real estate credit risk, we expect Q4 bulk business orders to fluctuate and short-term channel growth to slow down.
Category integration is carried out around the customization core, and the big home strategy is advancing steadily. The company opened up the integrated sales mode of “customized core + supporting products + door and wall system”, driving the improvement of the performance of the whole category. The revenue of 21q1-3 wardrobe was 5.736 billion yuan, an increase of 50.5% at the same time; The revenue of kitchen cabinets was 5.395 billion yuan, an increase of 30.6% at the same time; Bathroom, wooden door and other accessories increased by 38.1%, 72.5% and 125.9% year-on-year. Among them, other products other than customized cabinets in the whole packaging channel began to be sold at a high speed, and the effects of category integration and big home strategy continued to appear.
The iteration of the integrated channel mode helps the logical deduction of the platform. In 2018, the company took the lead in expanding the whole decoration channel in the industry. Relying on the leading position of the two core customized categories of overall kitchen cabinet and whole house customization (wardrobe), the company gives full play to the advantages of brand, manufacturing and supply chain, cooperates with head decoration enterprises and seizes the front channel. In 2021, the company launched the whole customized brand “Star House” and the material supply platform “oupai excellent material”, realizing the integrated marketing from single product to platform, driving the rapid growth of main and auxiliary material categories such as customization, supporting and packaging materials, and leading the whole packaging business while stepping into the fast lane α Highlight. By the end of 21q3, the company had nearly 700 decoration stores, and the decoration agents covered nearly 600 cities. We believe that the packaging channel is expected to continue to contribute to the core increment.
Investment suggestion: the company has outstanding advantages in product power, channel power and brand power, stable home strategy and stable leading position. We estimate that from 2021 to 2023, the company’s operating revenue will reach RMB 20.31 billion, 24.17 billion and 28.3 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 37.8%, 19.0% and 17.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach RMB 2.76 billion, 3.32 billion and 3.93 billion (adjusted according to the performance forecast, the previous forecast value was RMB 2.863 billion, 3.439 billion and 4.057 billion), with a year-on-year increase of 33.8%, 20.3% and 18.2%, corresponding to EPS of RMB 459, 5.52 and 6.53, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of substantial fluctuations in the price of raw materials, the risk of intensified market competition, dealer management risk, etc
