\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) (300761)
Event:
Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) announcement: the company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to be – 350-400 million yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 210-260 million yuan.
Key investment points:
The company sold 97 million yellow chickens in Q4, with a sales revenue of 2.7 billion yuan, and the average sales price was about 6.8 yuan / kg, up about 12.8% month on month. The complete cost of yellow feather chicken breeding is about 6.3 yuan / kg, and the profit of single feather is about 2 yuan / piece.
The company sold 370 million commercial broilers throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. The annual sales revenue of broilers is 9.57 billion yuan, the average sales price is about 6.46 yuan / kg, the full breeding cost is about 6.3 yuan / kg, and the single feather profit is about 0.65 yuan / piece.
The production capacity of yellow feather chicken industry is low and the fundamentals are upward. Due to the continuous de capacity of Huangji sector, the price has started to rise since the second half of 2021. By December 2021, the single feather profit will reach more than 3 yuan. We expect the fundamentals to continue to improve in 2022. In terms of pig business, the breeding cost is expected to gradually decline in 2022, and the annual loss is expected to narrow.
The profit forecast and investment rating predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be -3.5/11.8/2.64 billion yuan and EPS will be -0.88/2.93/6.55 yuan / share respectively. The company’s businesses are gradually improving, the fundamentals of yellow chicken are upward, the inflection point of pig cycle is approaching, and the “buy” is maintained
Rating.
Risk warning: the company’s performance is lower than expected; Epidemic disease affects the sales volume of the company; The decline of the company’s cost is less than expected; The extent of capacity removal in the industry is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
