\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) (600460)
Core view
Event: the company issued a performance forecast for] 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.45-1.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2145% - 2165%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted in the whole year is RMB 940-950 million, and the annual performance of the company is in line with expectations.
The company's main business has been advancing steadily, and its non current financial assets have increased in value. According to the performance forecast of 2021, the appreciation of non current financial assets held by the company totaled 590 million yuan, of which the fair value adjustment brought by the company's listing of Shanghai Anlogic Infotech Co.Ltd(688107) was 530 million yuan, and the fair value adjustment brought by the introduction of external investors by video core technology was 50 million yuan. It is estimated that the company's Q4 net profit excluding non parent company is RMB 250-260 million in a single quarter, which mainly benefits from the continuous and steady progress of the company's various businesses, the continuous optimization of product structure and abundant capacity supply.
The high-end business continued to make breakthroughs and the product structure was further optimized. The company's products continue to make breakthroughs in high threshold markets such as white power, communication, industry, photovoltaic and new energy vehicles. Many mainstream white power manufacturers in China have used more than 18 million Shilan IPM modules on the whole machine. Compound semiconductor chips such as red light and infrared have been mass produced and introduced into large customers. The pilot test line of SiC power devices has been connected. The proportion of IGBT in discrete device products is gradually increasing, and the R & D Progress of discrete device technology platforms such as superjunction MOSFET and IGBT continues to accelerate. The operating revenue of power management chip, MEMS sensor, IPM (intelligent power module), MOSFET, SBD, TVs, FRD, led and other products has increased rapidly, the product structure has been continuously optimized, the comprehensive gross profit margin of products has been significantly improved, and the company's performance has been further thickened.
The wafer production capacity guarantee is sufficient, which fully benefits from the high prospect of the industry. As a power semiconductor enterprise in IDM mode, the company has a leading capacity in China. The company has a capacity of 210000 pieces / month for Shilan integrated 5 / 6 inches and 60000 pieces / month for Shilan Jixin 8 inches. In 2021, the company's holding subsidiary Shilan Jixin 8-inch line basically maintained full production, and the other holding subsidiary Shilan Mingxin LED chip production line also reached full production, and both subsidiaries achieved annual profits. Abundant wafer production capacity ensures the expansion of the company's product lines and further stabilizes the company's advantageous position in the industry under the global environment of lack of core.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 1.45 billion, RMB 1.37 billion and RMB 1.61 billion from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company to be RMB 950 million, RMB 1.32 billion and RMB 1.57 billion respectively, corresponding to the growth rate of net profit deducted in 2022 and 2023 to be 38.9% and 18.9% respectively. Considering the leading position of the company in the field of power devices in China, high-end products continue to make breakthroughs and the supply of wafer capacity is abundant, it is expected to give full play to its advantages in the domestic substitution process of power semiconductors and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the risk of industry prosperity descending; Global macroeconomic fluctuation risk; The risk of the impact of changes in the fair value of non current financial assets on the company's performance.
