\u3000\u3000 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
Event: on January 22, 2021, the company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021, which is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.0-2.05 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 211.9% - 219.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 1.85-1.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 248.4-257.8%. Q4 company expects to realize net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 670-720 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.2-84.0%, deducting net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 640-690 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 73.2-86.8%.
Comments:
The growth of Q4 sales slowed down due to the rise of the base, and the position of the floor washer industry is still stable. Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) + two self owned brands of two wheel drive have been added, and the terminal sales have maintained a high increase. According to ovicloud, (1) Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) : the online retail volume / volume of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) floor sweepers in 2021 was - 3% / + 46% year-on-year, higher than the industry (- 1% / + 32%) year-on-year. Among them, the online retail volume / volume of 4q21 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) floor sweepers was - 22% / + 38% year-on-year. The volume increase was weak, mainly because the lack of core had not been alleviated and the price of products increased rapidly; In the online competition pattern, the share of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) retail volume / retail volume in November 21 was 41% / 48% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 5pcts / + 1pcts. In addition, stone and Yunjing gained an increase in China's market share by relying on their new products G10 and J2. (2) Tianke: online retail volume / volume in 2021 was + 296% / + 332% year-on-year, of which 4q21 online retail volume / volume was + 120% / + 144% year-on-year. The increase of the base led to the slowdown of Q4 sales growth, but with the increase of penetration, the floor washer market still has broad prospects; In terms of competition pattern, the share of online retail volume / retail volume of Tianke was 64% / 69% respectively in November 21, with a year-on-year increase of -9pcts / - 5pcts. Under the fierce competition in the industry, the market share of Tianke declined slightly.
Double eleven sales structure: high-end new products account for most brand sales. According to the monitoring data of the double 11 (business staff 11.1-11.11), the market of floor sweepers and floor washers shows an obvious trend of pushing new and selling expensive: (1) Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) floor sweepers: X1 (launched in September 21) has accounted for 55% of the sales brand, and the sales of N9 + and T9 Max released in early 21 have accounted for 9% and 5% respectively. (2) Tianke floor washing machine: the total sales of Tianke generation 2 accounts for 72% (the second generation LCD version accounts for 32%, the second generation slim version accounts for 24%, and the LED version accounts for 16%), and the sales of Tianke generation 1 accounts for only 12%. This trend shows that in the fully competitive clean appliance market, the timely and accurate introduction of high-quality new products is the key factor to maintain the market position. In this process, the full investment of marketing resources is also very important.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) is the double material leader in the floor sweeper and floor washer industry. The double wheel drive of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) + Tianke brand will help the company continue to launch new products to solve the user's pain points. There is more room to improve the penetration of cleaning appliances. It is expected that the company's high growth can be maintained for a long time. Considering that the company's double 11 sales are better than expected and the industry's position is still stable, the net profit forecast of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) 2021 is raised to 2.01 billion yuan (up 8.6%), maintaining the net profit forecast of 2.75 billion yuan and 3.69 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023. The current share price corresponding to PE is 39, 28 and 21 times respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: chip supply is in short supply, market competition intensifies, and the shipping channel is not smooth
