\u3000\u3000 Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (002714)
Event:
Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) announcement: in 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 6.5-8 billion yuan, and the performance was in line with expectations.
Key investment points:
The company sold 14.16 million pigs in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and a month on month increase of 63.3%. Among them, there are 13.97 million commercial pigs, 166000 piglets and 25000 breeding pigs. At the end of the fourth quarter, the complete cost of commercial pig breeding was reduced to about 14.7 yuan / kg, and the cost of weaned piglets was about 300 yuan / head.
In 2021, a total of 40.26 million pigs were sold, a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times. By quarter, the sales volume of Q1-Q4 is 7.72 million, 9.72 million, 8.68 million and 14.16 million respectively; In terms of varieties, there are 36.89 million commercial pigs, 3095000 piglets and 281000 breeding pigs. The annual pig sales revenue was 75.1 billion yuan, and the average sales price was about 16.5 yuan / kg.
In 2021, the breeding cost continued to decline, and the cost and profit margin remained the industry leader. The complete cost of pig breeding of the company shows a downward trend in each quarter, from q116 yuan / kg to Q2, which is slightly higher than 15 yuan / kg, and Q4 to 14.7 yuan / kg. The cost is lower than that of comparable companies in the industry. The cost end target in 2022 is to reach 13 yuan / kg in stages. By the end of December 2021, the company has 2.83 million breeding sows and 1.1-1.3 million reserve sows, which can support about 60 million commercial pigs in 2022.
The profit forecast and investment rating predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 71.56/836/45.311 billion and EPS will be RMB 1.36/0.16/8.61/share respectively. As the company with the largest market share in pig breeding industry, it is expected that the number of pigs sold by the company will still increase significantly in 2022, the breeding cost will continue to decline and maintain the industry-leading level. The current valuation level is in the bottom range and maintains the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the company’s performance is lower than expected; Epidemic disease affects the company’s marketing volume; The decline of the company’s cost is less than expected; The extent of capacity removal in the industry is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
