\u3000\u3000 Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) (000672)
Event:
Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) announcement: the company signed the strategic cooperation framework agreement with sunshine new energy development Co., Ltd. ("sunshine new energy") and Hefei Pingxin Technology Consulting Service Co., Ltd. ("Hefei Pingxin") to jointly layout green energy industries such as photovoltaic power generation and energy storage, meet their own needs and promote the transformation and upgrading of the company.
Key investment points:
The company's industrial base is combined with the advantages of sunshine new energy photovoltaic resources to help the company complete green transformation and jointly promote new energy development projects. The three parties will set up a joint venture to carry out cooperation and implement specific projects. The company holds 60%, and sunshine new energy and Hefei Yixin hold 20% respectively. Sunshine new energy is a leading Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) holding subsidiary of new energy. Hefei has the professional consulting advantage of photovoltaic energy storage, which will help the company realize "zero power purchase" and "green power export", as well as industrial upgrading and green transformation.
Cement enterprises account for a large proportion of purchased electricity. With the expansion of the company's production scale and the parity of photovoltaic, "zero power purchase" will reduce costs and increase profits. It is estimated that the cement output and export clinker of the company will increase year-on-year in 2021, and most of the annual power consumption needs to be purchased. The average utilization hours of Zhejiang distributed photovoltaic are 1000-1100 hours, and the corresponding power generation cost is 0.31 yuan per kilowatt hour. In 2021, the benchmark price of industrial power in Zhejiang Province will be more than 0.55 yuan. If "zero power purchase" is realized, the cost per kilowatt hour can be saved by 0.24 yuan. In the future, the company's cement production capacity will reach 35 million tons, the cost of photovoltaic power generation will continue to decline, and the income of "zero power purchase" is expected to further improve.
Transform and upgrade the green energy center and enjoy double dividends. The cooperation not only meets the green power demand of "zero power purchase" in all bases of the company, but also takes "photovoltaic + energy storage" as the direction of the company's industrial upgrading to promote the company's transformation and upgrading by means of industrial investment. The technical reserves and advantageous resources of sunshine new energy and its parent company Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) in the fields of photovoltaic, wind power converter and energy storage will provide strong support for the company's layout of new energy. Combined with the company's long-term investment accumulation and operation experience in new economic industries, it will jointly promote the company's green transformation and upgrading, and further improve and deepen the strategic layout of "one main body and two wings".
Profit forecast and investment rating. The company is a regional leader. The main business of cement is developing continuously. The aggregate environmental protection business is expanding rapidly and still has growth. The investment income of new economy appears, and the new energy business is arranged at the same time. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 2.489 billion yuan, 3.544 billion yuan and 3.738 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 6.44, 4.52 and 4.29 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the speed of capacity expansion is lower than expected; Cement prices fell; Cement demand is lower than expected; The comprehensive management of mines is becoming more and more strict; The investment income of new economy is less than expected; The uncertainty of the listing process of jingheji technology innovation board; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; This cooperation is a framework agreement, and there is still uncertainty about the specific implementation.
