\u3000\u3000 Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) (688711)
Events
Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) release the annual performance forecast for 2021: it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 450 million yuan - 530 million yuan in 2021. A year-on-year increase of 35.69% - 59.82%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million yuan - 68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.24% - 155.28%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 35 million yuan - 45 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.48% - 96.05%.
Key investment points
The performance forecast of 2021 is in line with expectations, and the company continues to grow rapidly
According to the calculation of the company's annual performance forecast in 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 is expected to be 13.43 million yuan - 21.43 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 63.7% - 161.2% and a month on month increase of - 9.13% - 44.99%. The company's performance growth mainly benefited from the vigorous development of downstream applications such as new energy, electric vehicles and industrial control driven by the trend of dual carbon and domestic substitution policies, and the strong demand for domestic IGBT and Fred power semiconductor devices. Relying on the continuous iterative breakthroughs and technological innovation of chip and module technology, the company has accumulated and formed a rich product line, large-scale production capacity and professional and efficient application technology service capacity, which has supported the rapid growth of the company's performance. In 2021, the company strengthened the demand docking and application technology services for key customers, and realized the mass introduction of frequency converter, customization, photovoltaic and electric vehicle products, which led to a significant increase in the sales of the company's products over the previous year.
Domestic power semiconductor leading enterprises, double carbon superposition, domestic substitution driven growth
The company is a leading power semiconductor design enterprise in China. In terms of products, the company has a complete range of products and a wide variety. At present, it has developed more than 100 kinds of IGBT, Fred, MOSFET chips and single tubes, more than 400 kinds of modules such as IGBT, Fred, MOSFET, rectifier diode and thyristor, with current range from 3a to 1000A and voltage range from 60V to 2000V. The performance and process technology level are at the advanced level of the industry; In terms of application fields, the company's products are applicable to diversified fields such as frequency converter, electric welding machine, UPS power supply, inverter power supply, photovoltaic, new energy bus air conditioning, new energy vehicle electronic control system, new energy vehicle charging pile and so on; In terms of customers, the company has rich high-quality customer resources and has established relatively stable supporting cooperative relations with industry leaders or well-known enterprise customers such as Huawei, delta group, Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , Shenzhen Jasic Technology Co.Ltd(300193) , Altay group, Suzhou Good-Ark Electronics Co.Ltd(002079) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Shenzhen Increase Technology Co.Ltd(300713) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) .
Benefiting from the dual carbon policy and the wave of domestic substitution, power semiconductors continue to enjoy a high boom. According to yole data, the global market scale is expected to grow from US $17.5 billion in 2020 to US $26 billion in 2026, with an average annual compound growth rate of 6.9%. At present, the market is still controlled by international giants, China's self-sufficiency rate is low, and there is broad space under the wave of domestic substitution in the future. In the photovoltaic field, CPIA estimates that during the "14th five year plan" period, China's average annual installed capacity of photovoltaic will be 70-90gw. The accelerated spread of photovoltaic new energy has led to a large demand for power semiconductors. The company has become one of the suppliers of Huawei's photovoltaic inverters, and it is expected that it will have a large capacity in 2022; In the field of new energy vehicles, the sales volume in the Chinese market continues to exceed expectations, reaching 3.3 million in 2021, is expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, and is expected to reach more than 10 million by 2025. The continuous improvement of the sales volume of new energy vehicles has brought both volume and price to the power semiconductor industry. The company now has 15 designated models, covering 4-5 brands, and is expected to increase significantly from 2023. In addition, It is expected that in 2022, the company's 750V vehicle gauge IGBT and Huichuan's customized products will start to increase.
Raise capital to expand module capacity and increase the future of high-order IGBT and third-generation semiconductor
The company raised a total of about 560 million yuan, of which 380 million yuan was used for the new power semiconductor device industry base project, aiming to expand the production of four series of products: standardized modules, customized modules, new energy vehicle modules and photovoltaic modules. In 2021, the company's module Huashan plant reached an annual capacity of 4.5 million pieces, which is in a saturated state. The planned capacity of Hsinchu plant is 6.8 million pieces, Phase I will reach a production capacity of 3.4 million yuan. In addition, the company plans to invest about 100 million yuan in the construction project of the R & D center. In the future, it will focus on the development of new technologies in the direction of "high current density, high-power IGBT chips and modules", "freewheeling diode chips", "rcigbt chips", "SiC Power Devices" and "customized modules".
We believe that as a leading design enterprise of China's power semiconductors, the company is expected to work with key customers to achieve continuous breakthroughs in the field of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic in the future. At the same time, the company raises funds to expand module capacity and overweight high-order IGBT and third-generation semiconductor products, which is expected to break through the bottleneck of bankruptcy energy, expand the market share of main business products and enrich product types, Improve the added value of products, so as to further improve the overall competitive advantage of the company.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 519 million yuan, 789 million yuan and 1114 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 0.66 million yuan, 1.03 million yuan and 1.46 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 169, 109 and 77 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Downside risks of industry prosperity, lower than expected progress of capacity climbing, increased industry competition, changes in overseas policies, etc.
