Key investment points
Phenomenon: since 2020, the supply, demand and prices of energy such as electricity, coal and natural gas have fluctuated significantly. 1) Power: in terms of supply and demand, power rationing occurred in many provinces in China at the end of 2020, and the power shortage has become more and more serious since May 2021; In terms of price mechanism, the floating proportion of market transaction electricity price will be increased to 20% in 2021 to accelerate the process of power marketization. 2) Coal: affected by the continuous enhancement of environmental protection and safety supervision, the withdrawal of supply guarantee policy, the punishment of coal mine overproduction and other policies, and the downstream coal demand continues to exceed market expectations, China’s coal price repeatedly broke the record high in 2021, and the supply guarantee and price limit has become the main direction of the national development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau and local policies in 2021. 3) Natural gas: the price of natural gas in Europe soared in 2021, with the largest increase of more than 4 times compared with the beginning of the year, which triggered the market’s concern about the energy crisis. By analyzing the causes of the soaring price of natural gas in Europe, it is more due to supply: upstream investment reduction + slow release of production capacity, Beixi 2 project is disturbed by many factors, and the proportion of new energy in European power generation structure is high, The anti risk ability of energy structure is low under extreme weather.
Outlook: at the time of the alternation of new and old energy sources, it is suggested to focus on the fields of wind, light, hydrogen, storage and network. We combed and summarized the three processes of alternation between old and new energy in human history (coal gradually replaced charcoal and firewood before the 1860s, the large-scale use of coal and steam engine in the first industrial revolution, and the gradual replacement of coal by oil, electricity and internal combustion engine in the second industrial revolution). We found that traditional energy still plays a pillar role When new energy wants to seize the voice in the energy field, it often brings significant changes and development opportunities in the energy field. 1) Green power (wind power and photovoltaic operation), with high prosperity, fast growth and broad market space, will continue to develop at a high speed in both short-term and long-term under the goal of carbon neutrality; The market competition pattern is good, and the concentration of green power leaders is higher. In 2020, Cr4 (total installed capacity) of wind power operation will be more than 50% and CR8 will be more than 75%; With strong profitability, Haifeng industrial chain is in the stage of rapid cost reduction. 2) Hydrogen energy has broad market space and rich application scenarios. The government and enterprises have clearly planned to accelerate the development of hydrogen refueling stations, and equipment manufacturers are expected to take the lead in benefiting. 3) Energy storage is the inevitable trend of industrial development. It is expected that after the cost reduction brought by technological breakthrough, the industrial space will be released quickly. 4) Power grid has become an important guarantee for the new power system through three ways: alleviating the problem of new energy consumption in the three north areas through UHV construction, strengthening the construction of peak shaving standby power supply to deal with equipment and system faults, and establishing a reasonable compensation mechanism for power auxiliary services.
Water Informatization: it is the inevitable trend of the development of water industry. Pay attention to equipment leaders and information platform companies. 1) Industrial trend: mainstream water companies have basically reached a consensus, and water informatization is the inevitable development direction; 2) Market space: the scale of water informatization market has reached 100 billion, and the beta effect is significant in the early stage of industry development; 3) Policy support: policy standards are continuously implemented, and requirements are put forward for pipe network leakage rate and water informatization; 4) Key targets: recommended water informatization industry chain, equipment + informatization platform are expected to benefit, Wpg (Shanghai) Smart Water Public Co.Ltd(603956) , Zhejiang Heda Technology Co.Ltd(688296) , Ningbo Water Meter (Group) Co.Ltd(603700) , Meter Instruments Co.Ltd(301006) .
Risk warning: the risk that the power demand is less than expected; The risk that the electricity price of terminal sales will drop more than expected; The risk that the power system reform is not as expected; The risk of wind power photovoltaic construction not reaching the expected level.
