Power coal continued to rise before the festival, and the performance of coal enterprises exceeded expectations and continued to push up the share price
This week, the price of thermal coal continued to rise, and the price of port coal rose to 1000 yuan, which exceeded expectations, mainly due to the release of phased demand under the high daily consumption of the power plant. Fundamentals of this week: in terms of demand, the low temperature continued this week, the daily consumption level of the power plant was high, which consumed some coal storage, and the centralized replenishment on the eve of the Spring Festival also provided some support for the demand; On the supply side, the production at the origin side remained stable. At the same time, Indonesia relaxed export restrictions and the import market recovered. Overall, there is no significant marginal change in the current fundamentals, and the performance of port coal price is mainly supported by short-term demand factors. Judging from the later stage, the current coal price support is weak, and it may be under pressure in the short term: in terms of demand, the start-up in the lower reaches of the Spring Festival is declining and the weather is getting warmer, and the coal consumption demand will turn weak seasonally. At the same time, the coal storage in the power plant is still at a high level, and the demand for replenishment in the later stage may decline. The purchase is mainly long-term cooperative coal; In terms of supply, the operating rate of producing areas may fall near the Spring Festival, but large coal mines respond to the supply guarantee initiative and plan to maintain production during the Spring Festival, and the supply performance may be stable. However, we believe that the coal price should not be overly pessimistic. Looking forward to the festival, the policy focus may again focus on ensuring safety. The current ultra-high load production intensity is unsustainable, and the production intensity may match the demand, so the coal price is expected to run at a high level. This week, the forecast market of coal enterprises exceeded the expected performance and continued to ferment. Following Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , this week Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) issued a performance forecast with a year-on-year increase of 4 times, and the high profit trend of coal enterprises has gradually appeared. Although 2021q4 guarantees supply and promotes the release of output higher than expected, the coal price is still difficult to return to the stage of 500 ~ 600 yuan. In the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, support the high coal price operation, and the coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. We expect the performance of coal enterprises to return to a benign and stable release, and is expected to catalyze the valuation repair. At the same time, we recommend power investment energy, Yankuang energy and Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) as the subject of new energy transformation, and are optimistic about the transformation and growth potential of coal enterprises under the support of high performance. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: the price of power coal continued to rise this week, and the demand for replenishment before the festival was released in stages
This week (January 17-january 21, 2022), the price of thermal coal continued to rise. The spot price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang increased to 1000 yuan / ton, which exceeded expectations, mainly due to the release of phased demand under the high daily consumption of the power plant. Fundamentals of this week: in terms of demand, the low temperature continued this week, the daily consumption level of the power plant was high, which consumed some coal storage, and the centralized replenishment on the eve of the Spring Festival also provided some support for the demand; On the supply side, the production at the origin side remained stable. At the same time, Indonesia relaxed export restrictions and the import market recovered. In terms of ports, QinGang’s inventory continued to run at a low level this week, providing support for the port’s quotation. Overall, there is no significant marginal change in the current fundamentals, and the performance of port coal price is mainly supported by short-term demand factors.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Coke rose this week & coke coal was stable, and the pace of replenishment of coke coal downstream slowed down
Coke: the increase in coke price continued this week, but the increase showed a narrowing trend. In terms of demand, the pace of resumption of production of steel mills has accelerated, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace has increased significantly, and the centralized replenishment of steel mills has driven the demand for coke stronger; In terms of supply, the high increase in demand has driven coke enterprises to resume production on a large scale, the operating rate of coke oven has recovered to the high point in recent two years, and the coke supply has been significantly supplemented. Coking coal: coking coal prices operated smoothly this week, and the rise was temporarily suspended. The strong coking coal price is mainly due to the accelerated resumption of production of blast furnace in steel plant and the demand for replenishment of coke steel downstream. At present, the ultra-high intensity replenishment in the lower reaches in mid and early January has replenished the coal storage to an all-time high, the available days have gradually recovered, and the demand growth trend has been suspended. Considering that the continuous force of origin security inspection has limited the release of output, tightened the supply margin, and strong support for coking coal price, it is expected to run stronger.
Risk tips: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
