\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
Core view
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021 on the evening of January 20. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.04-2.14 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.92% - 7.96%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8.33% - 13.75%.
The number of members maintained rapid growth: by the end of 2021, the number of effective members of mango TV had reached 50.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Compared with its competitors, the company has achieved high-quality user growth with relatively restrained copyright capital investment. On the one hand, it comes from the strong ability of self-made variety content, on the other hand, it comes from the strategic cooperation with shareholder China Mobile and channel parties. With iqiyi raising the price of membership fees again at the end of 2021, there is more room for expansion of the company's member income in the future.
The performance of variety advertising investment attraction is excellent throughout the year: the growth rate of advertising revenue of the company still exceeds 30% in 2021. The company adheres to the platform strategy of "content is king", and its self-made variety shows mainly rely on embedded advertising, which does not conflict with the advertising function of members. In 2021, the company's "sister 2 riding the wind and waves" and other popular variety shows showed excellent investment attraction performance. Affected by the epidemic situation, the broadcasting of some programs in 4q was delayed, which slightly affected the income. It is expected to return to normal in 2022.
The business structure transformation made the performance fluctuate in the fourth quarter: the subsidiaries mango film and television, mango entertainment and Shanghai mango mutual entertainment were in the period of structural adjustment and business transformation, resulting in a decline in certain business indicators; Xiaomang e-commerce is still in the cultivation period, and a certain loss is needed in the early stage to support the growth of the number of users and Gmv. In the long run, these inputs and adjustments have improved the core value of the platform, and short-term performance fluctuations do not change the long-term growth trend.
Investment suggestion and rating: we expect that the company will realize net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.069 billion, 2.685 billion and 3.075 billion from 2021 to 2023. Based on the company's unique advantages in the field of long video, the company will be given a net profit of 32 times PE and a target price of 48.3 in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: brain drain of core production; The viewing effect of integrated generation n product update iteration did not meet the expectation; The introduction and activity of e-commerce app users are lower than expected;
