\u3000\u3000 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) (603612)
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 162% to 180% year-on-year in 2021, maintaining the “buy” rating
On January 21, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 560 million yuan to 600 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 161.59% to 180.28%, and the net profit deducted from the non parent company will be 560 million yuan to 600 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 167.45% to 186.55%. Combined with the performance forecast, we lowered the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 580 (- 0.51), 813 (- 0.98) and 994 (- 130) million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 126 (- 0.11), 177 (- 0.21) and 2.16 (- 0.28) yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 15.7, 11.2 and 9.2 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. Since mid September 2021, the sharp correction of the company’s share price has reflected the current situation of profit correction in the fourth quarter in advance. Under the high prospect of downstream, we are optimistic that its ton profit will be gradually repaired in the future and maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2021, the annual performance increased significantly, and Q4 is expected to decline month on month
According to the announcement of the company, the pre increase of the company’s performance in 2021 mainly comes from: (1) the sales volume of pre baked anode products has increased steadily compared with that in 2020; (2) The downstream demand is strong, the price of prebaked anode increases higher than that in 2020, and the profitability is significantly improved; (3) The advantages of production capacity and scale are prominent. Centralized, global procurement and internal lean management make the company achieve remarkable results in reducing cost and increasing efficiency. Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Q1-Q4 in 2021 is expected to be RMB 110 million, RMB 182 million, RMB 182 million and RMB 86-126 million respectively. Among them, the pre baked anode industry is booming and profitable in the second and third quarters, while the profit level is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the impact of production and power restriction of the downstream electrolytic aluminum industry.
Taking the east wind of electrolytic aluminum, the company continues to accelerate the pace of capacity expansion
As the only downstream application field of prebaked anode, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is closely related to the prosperity of prebaked anode industry. Looking forward to the future, the steady growth of the government will promote the bottom recovery of the completed end of real estate. At the same time, the demand in emerging fields represented by automobile transportation is accelerating, and China’s electrolytic aluminum production is still expected to maintain stable growth. In this context, in recent years, relying on the cost advantage and the mode of joint venture plant construction, the company has continuously accelerated the pace of capacity expansion, and the existing capacity has reached 2.52 million tons / year. At the same time, according to the announcement of the company, the company will continue to promote the four strategic layouts of northwest, southwest, Shandong and overseas, and strive to put in at least 600000 tons of pre baked anode capacity every year in the next five years. It is expected that the total pre baked anode capacity of the company will reach 5 million tons in 2025.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates greatly, and the project commissioning process is not as expected.
