\u3000\u3000 Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) (001205)
Key investment points
Recommendation logic: ① the coastal chemical transportation industry has high barriers to entry, and the new transportation capacity is subject to regulatory constraints. In the past six years, the compound growth rate of deadweight tons was 4.3%, and the growth rate of industrial transportation volume was 8%; ② The company’s own expansion path is clear: the market share can be increased by purchasing ships, 30 ships in 22 years and 50 ships in 25 years, and the market share can be close to 20% in the medium term; ③ Industry and company’s gross profit is expected to be stable and upward: the tight balance between industry supply and demand and safe transportation guarantee requirements ensure that the gross profit center is stable at more than 30%. The company can improve gross profit by increasing average tonnage and optimizing shift scheduling.
The head enterprise of coastal hazardous chemicals surface transportation focuses on the integration of supply chain in the subdivided field of hazardous chemicals transportation. The company is a water transportation enterprise rooted in the Yangtze River Delta and facing the whole country. It focuses on the coastal transportation of domestic liquid dangerous chemicals, and has long been ranked among the top five in the approval of new transportation capacity by the Ministry of communications. The company focuses on business extension in the vertical field of subdivided industries and deeply cultivates the subdivided fields to create the absolute advantage of local differentiation.
Source of high gross profit of the industry: high access threshold and transportation capacity approval constraints to maintain a tight balance between supply and demand of the industry. The hazardous chemicals transportation industry has a high access threshold, and the new transportation capacity of the industry needs to be approved by the regulatory authorities. There are 280 coastal chemical transport ships. At present, 265 ships are actually in operation. Considering the scrap rate, the average net increased transport capacity is 1 ~ 2 ships per year. The compound growth rate of coastal dangerous chemical transport capacity in 15 ~ 25 years is 3.5%. The transportation capacity planning of chemical transport ships is made by the Ministry of communications in comprehensive consideration of the actual transportation needs of upstream chemical enterprises. The industry itself has the attribute of “tight balance” between supply and demand. The average gross profit of the industry is higher than 30%, and the transportation of dangerous chemicals has a certain risk. The high gross profit reflects the risk compensation of the owner for the carrier to maintain safe transportation.
The concentration of hazardous chemicals transportation industry is low, and the leading enterprises benefit from the intensive development trend of the industry. The regulatory position of “supporting the superior and the strong” promotes the intensive development of the industry, and the leading enterprises are expected to benefit fully. The transportation capacity of hazardous chemicals transportation industry is scattered, and the Cr6 measured by transportation capacity is 28%. The acceleration of asset securitization of private enterprises will contribute to the integration of the industry itself, and the market share of excellent enterprises will increase for a long time. The company’s market share is 5.5% in terms of transportation capacity and 9.6% in terms of transportation volume. The company plans to expand the fleet to 30 ships in 2023, and is expected to increase the market share by 5 ~ 6 percentage points under the caliber of transportation volume.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the company’s performance from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 150 million, RMB 220 million and RMB 330 million respectively, corresponding to the compound growth rate of performance from 21 to 23 years of 43%. The coastal hazardous chemicals transportation industry is in the resonance cycle of continuous growth of upstream demand and the improvement of its own intensive degree + accelerated expansion of the head company. Considering the company’s clear expansion path and high growth, it is given 25 times PE in 22 years, and the corresponding target market value / target price are 5.6 billion yuan / 46.85 yuan respectively. The first coverage is given a “buy” rating.
Risk tips: fluctuation risk of chemical industry, risk of safe operation and environmental protection, and risk of rising operating costs.
