\u3000\u3000 Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) (300035)
The performance is in line with expectations and is optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the company
The company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the annual net profit in 2021 will be RMB 344-393 million, an increase of 110% – 140% over 2020, and the net profit after deduction will be RMB 321-366 million, an increase of 110% – 140% over 2020. Quarterly, the non net profit deducted in a single quarter was RMB 65 / 0.92/0.89/0.76-121 million respectively, and the performance was in line with expectations. Full production and sales in 2021, graphitization capacity will be gradually released after Q1 in 2022, which is expected to thicken the company’s profit margin. We are optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term growth and raise the profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 373 / 676 (+ 0.99) / 970 (+ 209) million yuan, EPS is 0.58/1.05/1.51 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 52.3/28.9/20.1 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The negative integrated production capacity is released multiple times and is expected to be among the first echelon
Negative electrode capacity: by the end of 2021, the capacity had reached 92000 tons, including 12000 tons in Changsha and 80000 tons in Guizhou. In 2021, the annual effective capacity is about 52000-60000 tons. Projects under expansion at present: (1) 50000 tons in Changsha, which is expected to be put into operation in mid-2022; (2) Guizhou is integrated with 100000 tons, 65000 tons in phase I, which is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2022, and 35000 tons in phase II, which is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023; (3) Yunnan 100000 tons (in cooperation with Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ), 50000 tons in phase I is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2021, and 50000 tons in phase II is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2022. The capacity is expected to reach 257000 tons by the end of 2022, of which the annual effective capacity is about 130000-140000 tons (depending on the matching degree of the supply chain). Graphitization capacity: self supply of about 25000 tons in 2021. The newly-built graphitization capacity (45000 tons) will be put into operation in Q1 in 2022, and the self supplied graphitization capacity is expected to be higher than 70000 tons in 2022. The newly expanded negative electrode capacity is mainly an integrated project, and the graphitization rate of the company is gradually increasing. At the same time, the current situation of graphitization shortage in the industry is expected to be alleviated.
Output: it is estimated that the annual shipment in 2021 will be 55000-60000 tons, and that in each quarter will be 1 / 1.35/1.5/1.7-20000 tons respectively.
Profit: the profit per ton in 2021 is about 5000-6000 yuan. It is expected that the profit per ton in 2022 will be similar to that in 2021. With the improvement of graphitization self-sufficiency rate / the easing of graphitization shortage in the industry, the profit per ton is expected to continue to increase.
Customers: at present, the top five customers of the company are Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , AVIC lithium battery, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and ski, all of which are head battery manufacturers. There is a strong certainty of demand growth in 2022. Moreover, there is no concern that a single customer accounts for too much share among downstream customers, and the source of revenue is relatively stable. The company closely follows the rhythm of downstream demand expansion to expand production, and grows together with the leading battery factory.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the competition is intensified, and the profitability is reduced
