\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) (300696)
Event:
The company disclosed the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 250-260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83% - 90%; The net profit deducted from non profits was RMB 246-256 million, with a year-on-year increase of 85.35% - 92.55%.
Key investment points
With high performance growth, the advantages of the whole process business of aviation parts are gradually reflected: the company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 83% - 90% year-on-year in 2021, mainly benefiting from the rapid growth demand of aviation equipment construction. The company's main business is carried out around the whole process of aviation parts. The company continues to steadily promote various businesses, the new production capacity of precision NC machining is released one after another, the utilization rate of special process capacity of heat meter is steadily improved, the delivery and settlement of parts assembly business is started, and the advantages of the whole process of aviation parts are gradually reflected.
Deep cultivation in precision manufacturing of aviation parts and components, and the assembly business of special processes and components is expected to bring new growth: the company has been deeply cultivated in the field of precision manufacturing of aviation parts for many years, mainly engaged in the precision manufacturing of military and civil aircraft parts, engine parts and aerospace large structural parts. At present, the scale of China's military aviation equipment still has great room for improvement. Under the traction of the Centennial goal of building the army, the military aircraft is expected to accelerate the volume. With the support of the favorable policy of "small core and large cooperation" of the military industry group, the company is expected to continue to benefit from it. The company has upgraded and extended the whole process business of "NC precision machining - special process processing - component assembly". In terms of special process, the company has carried out heat meter processing business of several military aircraft models, and the capacity utilization has increased steadily. In terms of component assembly business, the company actively promotes the whole process capacity construction of most parts, which is expected to bring new growth to the company.
Actively promote the fixed increase and raise investment project, which is expected to further open up growth space in the future: the company is actively promoting the fixed increase and raise investment project "aviation parts intelligent manufacturing center". Based on the intelligent manufacturing of aviation parts, the project will further upgrade the company's intelligent manufacturing capacity, significantly increase the company's capacity reserve and help the company improve its international business undertaking capacity, It will also provide sufficient capacity space for parts processing orders of domestic large aircraft and military aircraft, and is expected to further open growth space for the company after it is completed and put into operation.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Based on the development prospect of the company's aviation parts manufacturing business, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 255 million yuan, 382 million yuan and 520 million yuan respectively, EPS will be 104 million yuan, 156 million yuan and 2.13 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 42 times, 28 times and 21 times respectively. Considering the whole process business advantages of the company in the field of aviation parts, it is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: order fluctuation risk; Product delivery progress is less than expected; The construction progress of the raised investment project is less than expected; Market fluctuation risk.
