\u3000\u3000 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888)
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) disclosure of 2021 annual performance express
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 67.669 billion yuan, an increase of 28.65% over the same period last year (retroactive); The annual operating profit was 14.736 billion yuan, an increase of 52.02% over the same period last year (retroactive); The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.592 billion yuan, an increase of 56.23% compared with the same period last year (retroactive). The annual net profit margin attributable to the parent company was 14.17%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5pcts.
Split the single quarter, the total revenue of China free in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 18.170 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%; The operating profit in the fourth quarter was 1.307 billion yuan, a decrease of 76.12% compared with the same period last year; In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.101 billion yuan, a decrease of 63% compared with the same period last year; The net profit margin attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 6.06%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.99pcts. China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) as the main force of duty-free sales in Hainan outlying islands, according to the proportion of historical revenue, we predict that the omni-channel operating revenue of China free Hainan in the fourth quarter is about 14-14.5 billion yuan.
There may be multiple expense amortization in the fourth quarter of 2021, which will have a certain impact on the net profit of a single quarter. According to the company’s previous annual reports, China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) will carry out accounting treatment on inventory falling price reserves, bonus incentive expenses and user deferred points in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the company’s single quarter profit in the fourth quarter of 2021 may be affected by the provision of the above expenses, resulting in a month on month decline in the net profit attributable to the parent in the fourth quarter. Taking the administrative expenses as an example, because China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) will settle part of the bonus expenses to the fourth quarter, the administrative expenses in the fourth quarter of 2019 and 2020 increased by RMB 300 / 530 million respectively compared with the third quarter of the year. The company’s overall revenue will increase in 2021. We believe that the bonus fee settled to the fourth quarter of 2021 may be higher than that in the same period of 2020.
In the fourth quarter, the discount range in Hainan has narrowed, and the gross profit margin may rise month on month. In the third quarter of 2021, the company was greatly affected by the epidemic in Hainan. At the same time, the preferential return of income tax received by the company and the rent concession of capital airport thickened the net profit of China’s exemption from return to parent company by 1.88 billion yuan. According to the public passenger flow data disclosed by Haikou airport, the passenger flow in Hainan has recovered month on month in the fourth quarter. We believe that the tax-free discount range in Hainan may be gradually narrowed in the fourth quarter, and the company’s gross profit margin may show a trend of month on month increase in the fourth quarter. In 2022, the company has launched preferential tax rate, and the gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to continue to improve in 2022, and the development of the company will change from “quantity” to “quality”.
The performance of 2021 was greatly affected by the epidemic in the third and fourth quarters, and there are still bright spots behind the performance. We can find that the company has ensured the stable growth of sales scale in the second half of the year, which is of positive significance for the long-term development of China free: first, the growth of scale or the effective maintenance of supplier relations. The epidemic affects the national retail market, and brands (suppliers) are also facing the problem of declining demand. Therefore, the scale growth of China free in the third and fourth quarters, It can enhance the stickiness with suppliers and obtain a rich product portfolio in the future; Second, the growth of revenue scale can effectively expand the size of the company’s members. Under the epidemic, China will not recruit new members through discounts, or lay a foundation for long-term growth in the future.
Overseas brands gradually restore their supply capacity, international freight prices tend to be stable, and the company’s inventory level is expected to be gradually optimized. In 2020, the epidemic broke out. In order to avoid the risk of shortage and support brand suppliers, the company took the initiative to improve the inventory level. With the normalization of the cooperation between the global brand suppliers of China free and China free under the epidemic situation in 2021 and the gradual stabilization of the form of international freight transportation, we believe that China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) the current demand for inventory may gradually weaken, and the company may improve the operation efficiency, reduce the operation cost and optimize the inventory structure in 2022.
Investment suggestion: at present China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , the competition pattern, supply chain advantage and business model have not changed, and the competition pattern of the track has not been destroyed. The epidemic has not had a great impact on the profit logic, and the recovery of passenger flow will effectively promote the company’s performance. The peak season of the first quarter of 2022 is approaching, and the medium free long-term value will not decrease. Considering the latest performance express disclosed by the company, we adjusted the company’s performance forecast. We expect the net profit from 2021 to 2023 to be 9.6 billion, 13.2 billion and 16.4 billion respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 56.23%, 38.01% and 23.60% respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects offline passenger flow
