\u3000\u3000 Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
Event overview: the company released the 2021 annual performance forecast on January 21. During the reporting period, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.0 ~ 2.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 211.9% ~ + 219.7%; It is expected to realize a net profit of RMB 1.85 ~ 1.9 billion after deduction from non parent company, with a year-on-year increase of + 248.4% ~ 257.8%.
The clean electrical appliance industry expanded rapidly, and the company’s performance growth met market expectations. According to AVC data, in 2021, China’s online retail sales of clean appliances increased by + 31.1% year-on-year, and continued to maintain stable growth; Among them, the online retail sales of sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) are + 28.3% year-on-year, and the retail sales of floor washing machines are expected to exceed + 300% year-on-year. Benefiting from the steady expansion of the industry, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was + 211.9% ~ + 219.7% year-on-year, which was in line with the previous market expectation.
The cost structure was optimized to hedge the cost pressure, and the company’s market share increased steadily. Since 2021, despite the impact of the price increase caused by the shortage of core components such as chips, the company has optimized the product structure by actively promoting innovation and increasing the proportion of high-end products such as self-cleaning, so as to pass on the cost side pressure. The average online retail price of ” Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ” sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) has reached 2806 yuan year-on-year + 966 yuan. At the same time, the company’s line listing rate in the clean electrical appliance industry increased from + 2.0pct to 19.5% year-on-year, and the floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) line listing rate increased from + 4.1pct to 45.0% year-on-year.
Continue to increase the global business layout, and the overseas market is expected to contribute considerable increment. According to IFR’s prediction, the sales volume of the global sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market will increase by about 13% in 2022, and the overseas market is in the structural upgrading stage of eliminating random products. Previously, the company planned to invest 490 million yuan in the convertible bond project to expand the global market of ” Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ” and “Tianke” brands, which is expected to reap the increment of overseas market by virtue of the cost-effective advantages of products.
Forward looking layout of lithium battery capacity, vertical integration of industrial chain and consolidation of advantages. The company announced in December that it plans to invest 1.2 billion yuan in the project of annual output of 2gwh consumer grade 3C lithium battery, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in 18 months; At the same time, the company has mastered the independent R & D and production of the Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) core component lidar. We believe that, as the company with the largest shipment volume in the floor sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and floor washing machine industry, expanding upstream of the industrial chain is conducive to ensuring the safety of the supply chain and reducing product costs, so as to improve profitability. On the other hand, realizing the independent control of lithium batteries, lidar and other core parts is conducive to maintaining the leading R & D advantage of the company, It can not only ensure the upgrading iteration speed of the original products, but also help to flexibly meet the R & D needs of new products.
Reiterated the previous role of equity incentive as the backing, and the company has sufficient long-term growth momentum. The company previously launched a new equity incentive plan in October 2021, granting 17.1952 million rights and interests to 927 key employees, further binding the interests of core employees; In terms of performance assessment objectives, for class I and II incentive objects, the compound growth rate of sales revenue and net profit of ” Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) ” and “Tianke” brands from 2022 to 2025 shall not be less than 35%, and the compound growth rate of net profit of listed companies shall not be less than 25%. We believe that equity incentive is expected to not only play a good role in underpinning performance growth, but also show the management’s sufficient confidence in the company’s long-term growth momentum
Investment suggestion: EPS is expected to be 3.60, 5.08 and 6.68 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE is 38x, 27x and 20x respectively. At present, the average wind of comparable companies in the industry ( Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , No. 9 company) in 2022 is expected to be 37x. Considering that the leading position of the company is stable, the profitability continues to increase, and the diversified development is worth looking forward to, the superposition of equity incentive brings a positive supporting role and maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the product demand is less than expected, the price of raw materials rises sharply, and the competition pattern of the industry deteriorates.
