Core view: the growth rate of industry business volume decreased in December, and the competitive strategy of Tongda enterprises differentiated. Yuantong previously announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 was expected to be RMB 1.05-1.25 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 175% – 227%, which significantly exceeded the expectation, confirming that Tongda’s profit improved in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Volume: in December, the growth rate of express business was 10.8%, and the growth rate of the industry slowed down. In December, the total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods were 998.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and the growth rate decreased by 5.5 percentage points month on month compared with November, accounting for 27.4% of the total social zero. In December, the express business volume reached 10.25 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, down 5.8 percentage points from November. Since October 2021, under the influence of macro economy, the growth rate of the industry has continued to slow down. Among them, Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express completed 15.8/18.4/11.5/940 million tickets respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 6.17% / 19.14% / 19.61% / 8.31%. In terms of share, the market shares of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / Shunfeng were 15.4% / 17.9% / 11.3% / 9.2% respectively, with a year-on-year change of 0 / + 1.3 / + 0.9 / + 0.1 percentage points. In 2021, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 108.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%.
Price: in December, the unit price of express delivery was stable, and Tongda was divided into competitive strategies. In December, affected by the standard income caliber of individual enterprises, the business income of national express service enterprises decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, reaching 91.76 billion yuan. Among them, the logistics business revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express was 39.54/43.16/28.16/15.414 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20% / 25% / 25% / 9%. In terms of single ticket revenue, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF Express Division was 2.5/2.35/2.44/16.43 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 13% / 4.4% / 4.7% / 0.4%, and the overall price performance of the industry was excellent. The competitive strategies of Yuantong and Yunda are different. Yuantong focuses more on price and Yunda focuses more on business volume. From the grain producing areas, Yiwu completed 1.295 billion pieces of business in November, with a unit price of RMB 309, a year-on-year increase of 8.38%, and the growth rate was basically the same as that in November.
*** At a low growth rate, the possibility of intensified local or periodic price competition in the industry is not ruled out, but considering the continuous tightening of policies, we expect the industry to still be in the repair cycle of easing competition in 2022.
Express is still in the repair cycle and continues to recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and Tongda as the head enterprises. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) production capacity deployment is gradually slowing down, capacity utilization is gradually climbing, capacity cycle and management cycle are superimposed, and the certainty of marginal repair is high. Tongda is still in the cycle of policy control and competitive repair. We believe that the single ticket revenue of the express industry in 2022 will be better than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the price elasticity of top enterprises in the first quarter of 2022 and continue to pay attention to the price trend of the industry in the off-season from March to May. Maintain the “buy” rating of S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) and China Express.
Risk warning events: the implementation of relevant policies is still uncertain, and the price war may still intensify; If the long-term cost curve of the industry is flat, it will not be conducive to the differentiation between enterprises
