Motivation analysis: why is the charging and replacement industry worthy of attention? ① From the demand side, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly, and the growth rate will be stable in the future. With the rapid and stable growth of new energy vehicle sales and the gradual improvement of ownership, the energy supplement anxiety of new energy vehicles will gradually replace the mileage anxiety as the main contradiction. ② From the policy side: in 2020, charging facilities will be included in the seven new infrastructure fields. Since 2021, relevant policies have been introduced continuously to guide and promote the construction of charging and switching infrastructure, and help the development of new energy vehicles and the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutralization goals. ③ According to our calculation, there is more than five times the growth space of charging pile from 2021 to 2025, and the CAGR can reach 54%; The power exchange station has more than 20 times the growth space, and the CAGR exceeds 110%.
Industry analysis: what is the current situation of the charging and replacement industry? ① At present, there are three main energy supplement modes: AC slow charge, DC fast charge and power exchange. ② The electric vehicle charging pile industry chain is mainly composed of equipment manufacturers, charging operators and platform solutions; Upstream equipment suppliers mainly provide materials and equipment. The industry is relatively mature, the technical threshold is not high, the degree of product differentiation is small, and the pattern is relatively scattered; Midstream operators are mainly responsible for the construction and operation of charging stations, which is a key part of the industrial chain. Due to their dependence on investment and construction, they have scale effect and relatively high concentration. ③ The power exchange industry chain is mainly composed of upstream power exchange stations, midstream vehicle manufacturers and operators, and downstream end consumers; The manufacturing of power exchange equipment needs the combination of mechanical and electrical, software and hardware technologies, and there are certain barriers; The power exchange operation is in its infancy, but at present, many enterprises have announced the plan of power exchange stations, and the cumulative planned number has exceeded 30000 by 2025; On January 18, 2021, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) established a subsidiary, times electric service, officially entered the power exchange track, released the power exchange service brand evogo and the overall solution of combined power exchange, and will start evogo power exchange service in the first batch of 10 cities.
Trend analysis: what are the possible changes in the charging and replacement industry? For charging: ① fast charging is an important solution to improve consumers’ charging experience, and single pile high-power is the general trend of the development of charging pile; ② The electric platform of electric vehicles is developing towards high voltage, and the battery power density and charging ratio are rapidly improved, supporting the application of high-power and fast charging of electric vehicles; ③ The charging service fee is market-oriented and the profit model is diversified; ④ Class broadband mode operation, the third party builds and manages the charging pile of the community; ⑤ Auto enterprises build their own charging network and build differentiated competitive advantages. For power change: ① the application scenario of terminal B is clear, which is expected to be implemented quickly and continuously; ② As a differentiated service for car enterprises, C-end helps car enterprises build differentiated advantages and enhance user attraction.
Investment suggestion: we believe that with the rapid and stable growth of new energy vehicle sales and the gradual improvement of ownership, the energy supplement anxiety of new energy vehicles will gradually replace the mileage anxiety as the main contradiction, and the charging and replacement industry will develop rapidly with large market space; At the same time, the exploration of technical routes and business models such as high-power fast charging + 800V voltage platform, broadband like operation + third-party unified construction and management, power exchange + baas mode will bring new opportunities to the industry. (1) It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment manufacturers and operators [ Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) ] in the charging industry chain; (2) It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment manufacturers and operators [ Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ] in the power exchange industry chain; (3) It is recommended to pay attention to the main engine plants [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ], relevant auto parts companies [ Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) ] and relevant power semiconductor industry companies [ Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductors (the application has been accepted), Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Tianyue advanced], etc. with 800V high voltage platform; (4) It is suggested to pay attention to the layout and promote the application of power exchange mode [Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ].
Risk tips: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, the technical route is updated, the competition in the charging and replacement industry is intensified, the calculation is subjective, and there is a risk of deviation
