Main points:
The expectation of steady growth is strengthened, and infrastructure investment is expected to improve significantly
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to December 2021, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 54.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared with January to November and 2 percentage points higher than the same period of last year; Compared with 2019, it increased by 8%, with an average growth of 3.9% in the two years. In December 2021, the monthly fixed asset investment increased by 0.22% month on month (quarter on quarter). From January to December 2021, infrastructure construction investment (full caliber) increased by 0.21% year-on-year, 0.38 PCT higher than that from January to November; Investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) increased by 0.4% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from January to November. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 1.1% year-on-year, the investment in transportation, warehousing and postal industry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the investment in water conservancy, environment and public facilities management decreased by 1.2% year-on-year.
On January 18, the national development and Reform Commission said at a press conference in January that from January to December 2021, a total of 287800 key projects were newly started, an increase of 36800 over January to November; The planned total investment of new projects increased by 3.3% year-on-year, 0.6 percentage points faster than that from January to November. At the same time, some 2022 special bonds have been issued in advance, and local governments are successively organizing the issuance. In addition, a considerable part of the funds of the special bonds issued in 2021 are carried forward to 2022. All localities are required to actively promote the formation of physical workload of special bond funds as soon as possible, pay close attention to the implementation of construction conditions such as land acquisition, demolition and municipal supporting facilities, and promote the timely commencement of new projects. In the context of "steady growth", infrastructure investment is an important starting point for expanding effective investment. With the accelerated issuance of 2021q4 and sufficient reserves of special bonds and major projects issued in advance in 2022, the growth rate of infrastructure investment in 2022q1 is expected to pick up strongly.
In December, the real estate fundamentals continued to bottom, and the completion end was still resilient
From January to December 2021, the national investment in real estate development was 14.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The growth rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than that from January to November and 2.6 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year; An increase of 11.7% over 2019 and an average increase of 5.7% over the two years; In December, the monthly investment in real estate development was 1.03 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.91%.
From January to December 2021, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.5% year-on-year and 33.2% year-on-year in December; From January to December, the new construction area of houses decreased by 11.4% year-on-year and 31.1% year-on-year in December; From January to December, the housing construction area increased by 5.2% year-on-year, and decreased by 35.3% year-on-year in a single month in December; From January to December, the completed area increased by 1.2% year-on-year and 1.9% year-on-year in December. The completed area of real estate continues to grow in a single month, which confirms that the continuous repair of the completed end of real estate has strong certainty under the "guaranteed delivery" policy. At present, the margin of real estate financing policy is slightly relaxed, and the bottom of real estate policy is gradually clear; The fundamental data such as land acquisition area and new construction area are still in the downward stage. We believe that the real estate fundamentals in 2022q1 may continue to reach the bottom. Driven by the "interest rate cut" and further improvement on the policy side, 2022q2 is expected to reach the bottom for repair.
Cement: the demand in the off-season is weakened, and we look forward to the restless spring after the year
From January to December 2021, the national cement output totaled 2.363 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, an increase of 1 percentage point compared with that from January to November; An increase of about 0.38% over 2019 and an average increase of about 0.19% from 2019 to 2021; In December, the monthly output was 191 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year and 4.4 percentage points month on month. According to Zhuo Chuang information, in December 2021, the average operating load rate of cement mills in China was 37.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.37 percentage points and 7.17 percentage points compared with November. In December 2021, the national cement storage capacity ratio averaged 63.63%, an increase of 6.61 percentage points year-on-year and 2.4 percentage points month on month. At the end of the year, the construction on the construction site has gradually come to an end, and the cement demand continues to decrease. With the superposition of staggered peak and kiln shutdown in winter, the cement demand and supply are weak or will continue in the short term.
In terms of price, in December 2021, the national average price of Po 42.5 bulk cement was 575.6 yuan / ton, higher than 115.5 yuan / ton in the same period of last year. Since the beginning of 2022, due to the sluggish demand at the end of the year, the cement price has dropped. As of January 14, 2022, the average price of Po 42.5 bulk cement was 528.5 yuan / ton, still higher than 72.6 yuan / ton in the same period of last year. From the perspective of cement coal price difference, the current cement coal price difference is about 409.3 yuan / ton, higher than 60.3 yuan / ton in the same period of last year; The upward movement of cement price center in 2022 is expected to improve the profitability of cement enterprises. From the demand side, after the Spring Festival, the accelerated issuance of 2021q4 and the special bonds issued in advance in 2022 are expected to promote the early implementation of major engineering projects, and the cement demand from 2022q1 to H1 will be strongly supported; At the same time, with the high start of cement price in 2022, the restless cement market this spring may be more obvious. In the medium and long term, the improvement trend of cement supply pattern will continue, and the regional concentration of cement leaders will increase. The resulting improvement of bargaining power is expected to further improve the profitability of cement leaders.
Glass: the price stabilization mood was strong before the year, and it is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price after the year
From January to December 2021, the output of flat glass was 1017 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%. In December, the output of flat glass in a single month was 85.96 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. In terms of inventory, according to Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data, as of January 14, 2022, the inventory of glass enterprises was 39.2037 million weight boxes, an increase of 1994.17 million weight boxes year-on-year. In terms of price, as of January 14, 2022, the average price of float glass in the national market was 2024 yuan / ton, down 2.22% from last week (2070 yuan / ton). After the new year's day in 2022, float glass enterprises in many places issued price increase letters. Before the year, float glass enterprises had a strong mood of stabilizing prices. We believe that after the Spring Festival, some production lines will face the expiration of furnaces, float glass will usher in the peak of cold repair, and the supply side is expected to be tight; It is expected that the real estate will continue to be repaired after the completion of the superimposed years, and the volume and price of float glass are expected to rise simultaneously.
Investment advice
1) cement: recommended Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ;
2) glass: recommended Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ;
3) glass fiber: recommended China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ;
4) water reducing agent: recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ;
5) consumer building materials: recommended Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) .
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment has dropped significantly, which is a risk; The implementation of relevant policies is less than expected; Increased uncertainty in the external environment.
