Industry update
Five Chinese enterprises have obtained the authorization of MSD covid-19 oral drug. On January 20, 2022, the MPP (medicines patentpool) platform granted 27 enterprises at home and abroad the right to produce molnupiravir, an oral drug of MSD covid-19. The authorized enterprises can produce and sell molnupiravir generic drugs to 105 low - and middle-income countries (excluding China). The authorized enterprises include five Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises, namely Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Langhua Pharmaceutical (via Biology), Shanghai Desano and Longze pharmaceutical.
Covid-19 epidemic continued to recur worldwide. Since the end of December, the number of new cases in the world has increased significantly, far higher than the historical peak, and a correction has begun in recent days. The increase in the number of covid-19 inpatients in various countries is less than that of new cases. The mortality rate of covid-19 patients in various countries remains within 1%. The global vaccination rate has steadily increased to 60%, and the global average vaccination rate of booster injection has exceeded 10%.
The proportion of overseas Omicron mutants continues to rise, and the proportion of Omicron worldwide has risen to 61%, becoming the world's mainstream strain.
Brief comment
The normalization of the epidemic situation and the expectation of influenza are optimistic about the volume of oral covid-19 drugs. Vaccine, neutralizing antibody and oral covid-19 drugs work together to normalize the epidemic situation and influenza. Based on the therapeutic mechanism, accessibility and economy of oral drugs, we continue to be optimistic about the application prospect of oral small molecule covid-19 drugs.
A number of oral covid-19 drugs at home and abroad are about to enter the mass production stage: ① the original research supply chain continues to increase the supply chain; ② Through the equity grant of MPP platform, generic pharmaceutical enterprises and supply chain enterprises obtain the rights and interests of generic pharmaceutical production and sales; ③ The layout of covid-19 oral drugs in China is rich, and the research and development is gradually promoted.
The MPP platform has successively started to review and grant the imitation rights of oral covid-19 drugs, paying attention to the expectation of large-scale generic drugs: the MPP platform has granted 27 Chinese and foreign enterprises to produce molnupiravir, an oral covid-19 drug, and Pfizer's application for generic drugs of paxlovid, an oral covid-19 drug, is also under review.
With oral covid-19 drugs (original research + imitation), it is optimistic about the large-scale expectation of cdmo in the upstream of the pharmaceutical industry and related products in the upstream fine chemical supply chain.
Investment advice
It is suggested to pay attention to: Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Brightgene Bio-Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688166) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, government orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc.
