Industry core view:
On January 20, the consumer sector generally rose, and the household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage industries with good performance rose by 1.86% / 1.59% / 1.58% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.95/1.68/1.67 PCT. Among them, the recent downward trend in Baijiu sector rose 2.18%, winning the Shanghai Composite Index 2.27 PCT.
Key investment points:
Against the backdrop of sluggish economy, the steady growth policy is expected to be stepped up and accelerated: Recently, the Bureau of statistics released various macroeconomic data of China, which shows that the economy is facing strong downward pressure. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of China's GDP was only 4.0%, and the growth rate decreased quarter by quarter. In December 2021, China's retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 4126.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 1.70%, down 2.20 PCT from November. After deducting price factors, the actual year-on-year increase was - 0.49%, lower than the market expectation. In the context of the sluggish economy, the steady growth policy is expected to accelerate the launch. Monetary easing policy was intensively launched: in December 2021, the central bank comprehensively reduced the reserve requirement by 0.5 percentage points; On January 20, the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market ushered in a double drop: the one-year LPR was 3.7%, down 10bp, and the five-year LPR was 4.6%, down 5bp. The financial subsidy policy was also launched simultaneously: on December 8, 2021, the national development and Reform Commission proposed to promote the upgrading of rural residents' consumption echelon, implement furniture and home decoration subsidies to the countryside and a new round of automobile to the countryside. It is expected that other easing policies will be gradually introduced next.
The prominent role of consumption growth in driving the economy will benefit from the economic recovery under the loose policy. In the "troika" of consumer economic growth, thanks to the remarkable effect of epidemic prevention and control in China, the export data in 2021 showed a bright performance. However, with the gradual liberalization of epidemic control abroad, the effect of export driven economy has weakened, and the driving role of consumption growth has become prominent. This year's policy orientation focuses on stabilizing growth and promoting development. Improving economic growth and restoring public confidence are the primary tasks of recent policies. The economy is expected to recover, various policies to promote consumption are expected to be implemented gradually, and some regulatory policies to suppress the consumer industry last year are expected to be relaxed. With the gradual stabilization of the epidemic situation in China and the rising popularity of vaccines, the consumer industry is expected to accelerate the pace of recovery.
The cost performance of consumer blue chip valuation is obvious, and the valuation repair is expected under the expectation of improved performance: in 2021, due to the decline of performance growth and the suppression of regulatory policies, the consumer sector experienced continuous adjustment. Except for light industry manufacturing and textile and clothing, other consumer sectors such as food and beverage, household appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, leisure services, etc, After going through ups and downs, the valuation and cost performance of consumer blue chips appear. Beginning in the 4 quarter of 2021, mass consumer goods began to rise in price and passed the upstream cost pressure. The price of high-end and secondary Baijiu liquor gradually fell to the ground. The demand recovery in the context of price increase plus steady growth, and the performance of consumer blue chip in 2022 is expected to improve, and the valuation is expected to usher in repair.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, with the development of the steady growth policy and the weakening of the marginal impact of the epidemic,
The cost of goods will be shifted to higher prices, and the price of high-end and high-end Baijiu will gradually fall. The future valuation of consumer blue chip is expected to usher in further restoration. We should pay attention to the leading industry of high-end Baijiu, condiment, snacks, dairy products and brine products. ② Tourism: Based on our prediction that the impact of the epidemic will gradually weaken, the relevant industries most affected by the epidemic are expected to be repaired. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of hotels, scenic spots and duty-free industries; ③ Beauty care: in the beauty era, the market of medical and beauty cosmetics is broad, and the high outlook continues. Despite the recent tightening of industry supervision and frequent policies, and the pain in the short term, the industry reshuffle is good for the compliance leading enterprises in the medium and long term. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises in the medical beauty and cosmetics industries; ④ Post real estate cycle: under the policy of steady growth, infrastructure and real estate are expected to develop, and the subsidy policy for furniture and home decoration to the countryside launched by the national development and Reform Commission is expected to gradually take effect. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of household appliances and home furnishings in the post real estate cycle. ⑤ Pig breeding: the current pig cycle has entered a downward cycle since February 2021. It is expected that the current pig cycle will end in the second half of this year and start a new upward cycle. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of the pig breeding industry; ⑥ Textile manufacturing: in 2022, listed companies have issued performance forecasts. Most textile manufacturing enterprises have good performance and low early valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading textile manufacturing enterprises.
Risk factors: the risk of repeated epidemic, the risk of less than expected policy strength, and the risk of less than expected consumption recovery.
