Core view
On January 20, 2022, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for tourism development, It is proposed to “innovate and improve China’s tourism under the condition of normalization of epidemic prevention and control, promote inbound tourism step by step and steadily develop outbound tourism under the premise of effective control of the international epidemic, strive to promote the deep integration of culture and tourism, strive to improve the modern tourism system and speed up the construction of a tourism power”, At the same time, it puts forward the development goal of “vigorous development of China’s tourism, orderly promotion of inbound and outbound tourism, obvious enhancement of the international influence and competitiveness of tourism, and significant progress in the construction of a tourism power” by 2025, and “basically building a world tourism power and contributing important forces to building a cultural power” by 2035.
With the gradual recovery of the epidemic situation, the cold winter of the tourism industry will eventually pass. At present, it may become the starting point of the overall recovery trend of the industry, waiting for the spring flowers to bloom after the recovery. From the launch point of this plan, the Winter Olympic Games and the Spring Festival can be regarded as the starting point of the recovery of tourism retail and other industries. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the tourist and travel traffic is expected to continue to rise, and the overall recovery of the corresponding industries is expected to show an accelerated trend. After the issuance of the national level plan, local governments may also issue relevant documents of tourism development plans of provinces and cities, put forward more specific goals and prospects, help the tourism industry and corresponding sub industries obtain stronger recovery momentum, accelerate the return to the pre epidemic prosperity level, and even surpass it.
Tourism is expected to show a strong development momentum after the epidemic. Consumption upgrading will support tourism related industries to continuously improve their own quality. The supply side structural reform of tourism will become the focus, which is expected to drive the accelerated growth of the industry. The “World Tourism Power” and “orderly promotion of inbound tourism and steady development of outbound tourism” emphasized in the plan further reflect the importance attached to the future internationalization strategy of tourism. When the global epidemic situation is gradually improved and controlled, the passenger flow of outbound tourism and cross-border tourism will gradually recover, and the strong development of tourism will become an important support for a cultural power, Show the driving force of vigorous development. The plan also emphasizes a series of key points for improving the service quality of the tourism industry and completing the supply side structural reform, such as “optimizing the tourism consumption environment”, “expanding the tourism consumption field”, “improving tourism consumption services” and “improving tourism service public facilities”. At present, the phenomenon of consumption upgrading is significant, and China’s epidemic prevention and control is relatively good, which makes the phenomenon of consumption return is also very obvious for tax-free and other industries. China’s tourism, duty-free industry and other related sub industries will accelerate their growth under the trend of consumption upgrading + consumption return + continuous improvement of their own quality.
Investment advice
We believe that the proposal of this plan reflects the country’s attention to the development of tourism, the construction of a tourism power and a cultural power. With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, tourism and related sub industries such as duty-free, hotels, catering and outbound tourism are expected to continue to pick up and show accelerated growth. We are optimistic about the relevant subject matter of tax-free industry leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . Related targets in the hotel and tourism industry include Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) with leading scale advantages, Fosun travel culture, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , etc.
Risk tips
Tip 1: repeated epidemic impact;
Tip 2: macroeconomic fluctuations;
Tip 3: policy fluctuation risk.
