Core view
Why is it difficult to grasp the investment opportunities of technology stocks. Why do you think that electric vehicles are just a product of many years ago before 2020? Why do you think NVIDIA is not a game graphics card before 2016? What kind of technology will develop again after its decline?
Technology develops in a spiral of innovation. Technological innovation is a new combination of existing technologies. The original technology is regarded as a component of the current innovative technology, and the current innovative technology has become a basic component of the construction of updated technology. Throughout the history of technological evolution, whether it is computing mode, communication mode, ship technology, automotive power system, or the mobile phone form we want to discuss today, it has experienced a technological “reincarnation process”.
The essence of technical transmigration is the story of red rose and white rose. Technology is recursive and constructed by different levels of technology, but contains similar components, which may be presented at different times. After the bottleneck of a technology, the technology of another technology sequence is reconsidered, improved and innovated, resulting in the phenomenon of technology cycle and alternating evolution. This phenomenon occurs in all fields.
The reasons of technology cycle: 1) technology has path dependence, and innovation is often the combination of original technology. 2) Market demand forces innovation, and it is easy to tap inspiration from history. 3) As for the time point, creativity is ahead of infrastructure and public cognition, and some good ideas are “too hasty”. 4) For the problem of business strategy, good technology may not come from good companies, and some good products are dragged down by companies.
Technology is a combination of evolution, investment should not pursue the absolute innovation of technology.
Technology has been continuously combined with other technology points according to the current demand, and the direction of investment is consistent with the change direction of demand. When we know that technology is spiral evolution and technology is the combined innovation of original technology, we will not pursue absolute innovation. You won’t think that “this thing and technology have been done for many years, with no future and no investment opportunities”. With the knowledge of technological cycle innovation, we will not take the logic of “Thomas Davenport manufactured electric vehicles in 1834, Ford, Renault and Toyota developed electric vehicles in 1990, and now it is not the world of fuel vehicles”.
Where is the next cycle of technology? 1) The growing demand for personalized mobile phones is the general trend of self-developed chips. 2) The horizontal folding screen is not warm, and the vertical folding screen and folding sector can be expected in the future. 3) With the advent of the era of interconnection of all things, analog IC has ushered in a period of rising demand. 4) Technology and standard barriers have been gradually removed, and power line carrier communication has ushered in a rebirth. 5) Semiconductor IDM mode will rise again. Global geopolitical competition, production capacity shortage and obstacles to the development of Moore’s law forced the self built production line to follow the IDM model.
Investment suggestions: Based on the above five directions, it is recommended to focus on Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , 3Peak Incorporated(688536) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , chuangyao technology, Leaguer (Shenzhen) Microelectronics Corp(688589) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) body, China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Byd Company Limited(002594) semiconductor, Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) .
Risk tip: imperfect supporting facilities hinder the promotion of the reuse of old technologies. The current “reincarnation” technology in place may be replaced by the next “reincarnation” technology.
