Key investment points
Event: on January 20, the State Council issued the notice on the “14th five year plan” for tourism development. The plan proposes that 1) under the premise of effective control of covid-19, promote inbound tourism step by step, steadily develop outbound tourism, continue to promote tourism exchanges and cooperation, and promote the coordinated development of outbound tourism with the three major markets of Chinese tourism and inbound tourism. 2) By 2025, the development level of tourism will continue to improve, the effective supply, high-quality supply and flexible supply of tourism will be richer, and the consumption demand of mass tourism will be better met.
Timely start inbound tourism to attract international tourism demand: the plan proposes to timely start inbound tourism promotion on the premise of timely studying and judging the epidemic prevention and control situation outside China and the development and changes of the international environment, scientifically adjusting the management measures of relevant personnel in China and ensuring the safety of epidemic prevention. We expect that the follow-up entry epidemic prevention policy will no longer be “one size fits all”, and the scientific formulation of the entry tourist visa policy will promote the gradual recovery of entry tourism. At the same time, China will improve the service quality of inbound tourism, subdivide key, emerging and potential markets, and closely follow the needs and consumption habits of overseas tourists; Optimize the reception services of scenic spots and hotels, improve the services of travel agencies and tour guides, and improve the experience of inbound tourists. In the time window when the global epidemic is not over, seize the opportunity to attract international tourism demand, and China’s tourism consumption market will gradually pick up. We believe that it will drive the recovery of China cultural tourism, hotels and tax exemption. The performance of high-quality targets is flexible and has layout value. Focus on jiumaojiu, Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , recommend Haidilao, China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) , pay attention to Xiabu, Xiabu, Fosun tourism culture, Yunnan Tourism Co.Ltd(002059) , Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) , Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei, Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) .
Steadily develop outbound tourism, and the recovery can be expected under the normalization of the epidemic: under the epidemic, the main business of outbound tourism enterprises has stagnated, and the travel demand has been overstocked for a long time. The plan proposes that on the premise that international personnel exchanges return to normal, tourism enterprises should strictly abide by the national regulations on epidemic prevention and control and guide tourists to do a good job in self-protection. Since 2021h2, many countries have released the signal of border control liberalization, superimposed this policy support, and the travel demand may be released steadily. The plan also supports qualified Chinese tourism enterprises to “go global” with Chinese tourists, strengthen the international layout, welcome the recovery of outbound tourism business, continue to benefit overseas cultural tourism, and pay attention to Tongcheng Yilong, Ctrip group-s, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) .
Looking forward to 2025, deepen the supply side reform of Tourism: during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the annual per capita travel exceeded 4 times, and the annual total number of inbound and outbound tourists exceeded 300 million. The plan emphasizes the important position of tourism as a strategic pillar industry of the national economy. Under the regional diversification of consumer demand and the profound changes in consumer preferences, it is necessary to speed up the supply side reform of tourism. The policy clearly supports the recovery of tourism in the post epidemic era.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation repeatedly disturbed the recovery rhythm, macroeconomic fluctuations, and the policy was less than expected
