Rising sun, vibrating core and casting Soul: domestic substitution and intelligent innovation in G2 era. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the wave of domestic substitution and innovation will be the core axis of the future science and technology industry. (1) Domestic substitution: with the continuous pressure of the United States on Chinese enterprises such as Huawei, ZTE and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Chinese science and technology enterprises led by Huawei are gradually promoting domestic substitution in parts supply chain, semiconductor supply chain and operating system. (2) Intelligent Innovation: the next 5g era is the era of intelligent things. 5g + aicde (AI, IOT, cloud, data, edge) will stimulate a large amount of application space of industrial Internet, and the trend of VraR and intelligent automobile is gradually rising.
Semiconductor: the wave of localization has lasted for a long time, and we continue to pay attention to the high boom segments. (1) Equipment and materials: under the background of Huawei and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) being sanctioned, the localization of semiconductor equipment and materials has become an urgent demand. Under the huge market demand, the support of national policies and a large amount of R & D investment, the market share of Chinese equipment and materials enterprises will continue to increase, and the wave of domestic substitution will last for a long time. (2) Aiot: under the background of Hongmeng acceleration, the demand for Internet of things terminals is rising, and the number of Internet terminals is rising, which significantly benefits the brain “SOC” link as an Internet of things terminal. (3) IGBT: benefiting from the substantial promotion of clean energy, the sales volume of new energy vehicles and photovoltaic power generation have been continuously improved. As the core chip in the above two fields, IGBT has long-term growth. In the short term, IGBT only increased slightly in some fields in 21 years, and the safety margin at the price end in 22 years is high. (4) RF: in the future, 5g upgrade, module integration and domestic substitution will drive the rapid growth of domestic RF front-end companies in China. (5) Optics: as an important direction of mobile phone terminals, optics continues to innovate. Dual main camera / three main camera will become the mainstream in the future. The number of pixels of a single CIS is still increasing, and the value of optical single machine is expected to continue to grow. (6) Military semiconductors benefit from the “14th five year plan” and will continue to be in a high outlook.
Consumer electronics: VR / AR and smart cars are the most important innovation directions in the future. Finished product assembly is the core axis of the growth of consumer electronics leaders in the next N years. (1) In the long run, new energy vehicles and VraR have a huge space: VraR is expected to become a consumer electronics hotspot after smart phones. The VR industry is growing rapidly and the AR industry has a huge space; There is a huge space for automotive electronics, which is still in the early stage of penetration. The smart automobile supply chain business will become an important driving force for the future growth of consumer electronics supply chain enterprises. (2) The trend of the leader of smart machine components extending to downstream OEM is obvious. The finished product assembly business of products such as airpods, applewatch, iPhone, Android TWS and IOT will drive the rapid growth of revenue and profit of consumer electronics leaders.
Component: when MLCC domestic substitution is in progress. (1) MLCC: the global MLCC market is about $10 billion. At present, the global MLCC manufacturers are mainly concentrated in China, Taiwan and Japan and Korea. At present, many mainland MLCC manufacturers such as Sanhuan, Fenghua and Yuyang are expanding their production, and domestic substitution is accelerating. (2) Inductance: according to PAUMANOK’s statistics, the global inductance market will reach US $4.2 billion in 2021. In the future, network communication, vehicle, power and industry will continue to push up the demand for inductance, and shunluo and maijie are expected to continue to grow in the future.
Investment suggestion: focus on semiconductor, consumer electronics, components and high-end equipment leaders. Recommendations: Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Shenzhen Sunlord Electronics Co.Ltd(002138) , Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) , Giantec Semiconductor Corporation(688123) . Suggestions: 1. Semiconductor: (1.1) semiconductor design: Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Wuxi Etek Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688601) ; (1.2) semiconductor equipment: Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Suzhou Hyc Technology Co.Ltd(688001) ; (1.3) semiconductor materials: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) , Shanghai Sinyang Semiconductor Materials Co.Ltd(300236) ; (1.4) semiconductor manufacturing: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) (A / h), Huahong semiconductor (H), etc; (1.5) power semiconductor: Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) etc. 2. Consumer electronics: Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) , Lingyi Itech (Guangdong) Company(002600) , Zhejiang Crystal-Optech Co.Ltd(002273) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , etc. 3. Components: Chaozhou Three-Circle(Group) Co.Ltd(300408) , Guang Dong Fenghua Advanced Technology (Holding) Co.Ltd(000636) , Zhejiang Jiemei Electronic And Technology Co.Ltd(002859) , Shenzhen Microgate Technology Co.Ltd(300319) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Nantong Jianghai Capacitor Co.Ltd(002484) . 4. High end equipment: Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) .
Risk analysis: the downstream demand of semiconductor is less than expected; Sino US trade frictions are repeated; The risk of epidemic recurrence and aggravation.
