\u3000\u3000 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896)
Key investment points
Performance forecast: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is RMB 900-1 billion, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 850-950 million. The net profit in 2021 will double or increase more. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 900-1 billion yuan, an increase of 105% – 127% over 440 million yuan in the same period of last year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 850-950 million yuan, an increase of nearly 100% – 124% compared with 420 million yuan in the same period of last year.
2021q4 has a large performance range. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 190-290 million yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 28% – 95% over 150 million yuan in the same period of last year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 180-280 million yuan, an increase of nearly 25% – 94% compared with 140 million yuan in the same period of last year.
The high growth of the company’s performance is mainly due to: 1) as the leader of China’s medical beauty, the company continues to improve its product and brand strength with a clear layout of production strategy; 2) Further enrich the product matrix and further improve the breadth and depth of customers covered; 3) With the expansion of the company’s sales and production scale, the scale effect further appears and the profitability is remarkable.
Continue to be optimistic: industry supervision is good and compliance leader, with β； The product matrix is the winner and loser, with α
Policy: the medical and American policy does not change the principle of “cracking down on illegality and benefiting compliance”. The policy has become stricter, urging medical and American institutions to strictly purchase compliant and legal medical and American products, and promoting parallel and fake products to move closer to formal products. In addition, with the intensification of competition, the medical beauty track has entered the era of constant strength, the leading performance of the subdivision track, and the growth of the leading performance is obvious.
Product: new product iteration and product matrix are the winners and losers, Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) has obvious combination advantages. From the perspective of many new products such as angel needle, girl needle, letibao and Gemini needle in 2021, product positioning is very important. On the one hand, the competition in the direction of subdivided track is relatively weak; On the other hand, the upstream is no longer just the logic of large single products, but effectively build a product portfolio according to the product life cycle. The star product hi Ti of Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) has the advantage of monopolizing the market. The promotion of the new product Ru Bai angel is smooth. The company’s product matrix is well constructed. Hi Ti, Ru Bai angel and botulinum toxin and slimming products in research are accurately stepping on the market hot spots, and the logic of growth and profit is clear. Moreover, considering the long cycle of medical device product R & D, clinical research and registration approval, the leading advantage is difficult to surpass in the short term.
Profit forecast and Valuation: overweight rating
The company is in the link with the most bargaining power in the fast-growing medical and American industry. It has great potential and wide space in terms of profitability, product differentiation and scarcity, and project reserves. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 950 million, RMB 1.49 billion and RMB 2.28 billion respectively, with growth rates of 117%, 56% and 53% respectively, corresponding to 104, 66 and 43 times of PE, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, the risk that the business qualification and product registration approval documents cannot be renewed on time, the risk that the product structure is relatively single, etc.
