\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) (300196)
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is expected to be RMB 545-605 million, with a year-on-year increase of 101% - 124%
The company released the performance forecast for 21 years. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 545-605 million, with a year-on-year increase of 101% - 124%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 465-525 million, with a year-on-year increase of 84% - 107%. We calculate that the net profit of Q4 in a single quarter is RMB 124-184 million, with a year-on-year increase of 67% - 147%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 102-162 million, with a year-on-year increase of 49% - 137%.
In the past 21 years, the volume and price of products have risen simultaneously, and there is no risk of medium and long-term demand
The company achieved a high increase in annual profit. In Q4, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 102-162 million yuan in a single quarter, with a corresponding median value of 132 million yuan, a slight decrease of 3.6% compared with Q3. Throughout the year, the company mainly benefited from the strong demand in downstream application fields, the continuous rise of industry prosperity, the simultaneous rise of volume and price of the company's products, and the company further strengthened internal management, effectively improved operation management efficiency, reduced cost and increased efficiency. According to Zhuo Chuang information, we calculated that the average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn Q4 of the company increased by 12% year-on-year and 2.4% month on month. By the end of December, the inventory of key enterprises in the industry had reached 201000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, and the inventory continued to be at the bottom of history. From the follow-up demand side, under the carbon emission reduction policy, the new energy industry is facing great development opportunities. The installed capacity of wind power and the demand for new energy vehicles are expected to maintain rapid growth, driving the increase of glass fiber yarn demand. In addition, overseas export demand continues to improve. The 100000 ton glass fiber tank kiln production line of the company was successfully ignited on September 14. The labor cost of the new line is expected to be reduced by more than 50%, and the overall production cost is expected to be further optimized.
A new round of capacity expansion was launched, and the categories were more perfect
In the future, the company plans to invest in the construction of 600000 tons of high-performance glass fiber intelligent manufacturing base project. After reaching the production capacity, the company will become the third largest glass fiber enterprise in China, second only to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) and Taishan glass fiber. According to the feasibility study report of the company, after the completion of the project, the income per ton can be 6390 yuan. Using pure oxygen combustion + high-power electric melting aid technology, the fuel cost per unit product can be reduced by 15% - 30% and the overall energy consumption level can be reduced by more than 30%. We calculate that the total cost per ton is 3325 yuan (including expenses), and the after tax financial internal rate of return is 28.57%, which is higher than 24.51% of the 100000 ton raised investment project in the early stage. The completion of the project will expand the company's wind power yarn capacity, further expand the product application field, improve the industrial chain, and improve the energy efficiency of the new capacity, which is expected to further narrow the cost gap between the company and leading enterprises.
We continue to be optimistic about the company's medium and long-term growth and maintain the "buy" rating. We continue to be optimistic about the company's medium and long-term growth and maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years of RMB 580 / 700 / 840 million. Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, we give the company 14 times the target PE for 22 years, corresponding to the target price of RMB 23.94, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the company's production progress is less than expected, the demand for glass fiber is declining, the industrial capacity is greatly expanded, and the performance forecast is the preliminary accounting result. Please refer to the annual report.
