\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812)
Key investment points
Frequently sign guarantee agreements to re confirm the prosperity of the diaphragm
Since last January, the company has signed a number of diaphragm supply guarantee agreements ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) : no more than 5.178 billion yuan in 22 years – tax excluded, advance payment of 850 million yuan; a large overseas auto enterprise: more than 1.65 billion yuan in 22-24 years, 900 million yuan from 25 years; China Innovation Airlines: no more than 2.5 billion yuan in 22 years, advance payment of 100 million yuan), which once again verified the shortage of diaphragm in 22 years, and the high-quality production capacity of diaphragm is in short supply, Price increases will gradually spread.
High material purchase orders, aggressive production scheduling, optimistic about downstream demand
We assume that the tax inclusive price of diaphragm procurement of China Innovation airlines in 22 years is about 2.8 yuan / square meter, the purchase volume of diaphragm corresponding to 2.5 billion orders is about 890 million square meters, and the output of lithium battery is about 53.4gwh. The installed capacity of AVIC lithium battery power battery in 21 years is about 9.05gwh; The release of production capacity and radical production scheduling in 22 years show that it is optimistic about the high growth of downstream demand, and the price rise of lithium carbonate has a limited impact on the sales of electric vehicles.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will reach RMB 2.637/55.69/6.494 billion, corresponding to pe9.1 billion 14 / 43.16/37.01x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Downstream demand is lower than expected; The mass production time of all solid state battery is greatly advanced; The volume of aluminum-plastic film was lower than expected.
