\u3000\u3000 Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) (688301)
Event: the company released the performance forecast of 2021 annual report
For the whole year of 21 years: 1) the revenue is expected to be 1.1 ~ 1.2 billion yuan, yoy + 40.29% ~ 53.05%; 2) The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 450-500 million yuan, yoy + 102.48% ~ 124.97%; 3) The net profit excluding non parent company is expected to be 320 ~ 360 million yuan, yoy + 61.29% ~ 81.45%. The company's performance maintained rapid growth mainly due to the batch introduction of strategic key customers + the strength of the medical & industrial sector.
21q4 performance forecast:
According to the annual central performance calculation, the company achieved a revenue of 326 million in 21q4, yoy + 42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 149 million, yoy + 126%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 71 million, yoy + 29%. 21q4 non recurring profit and loss 78 million.
Review 2021: Medical + industry is the main growth point, and the layout of strategic key customers is smooth
1) medical: static products grew steadily, and the proportion of dynamic products further increased; Dentistry has maintained rapid growth.
2) industry: segment demand and highlight the importance of key customers. The strategic layout of the company's key customers, and the industrial digital X-ray detector still has great room for improvement as an upgraded alternative product.
Highlights in 2022: the basic market of medical treatment + industry continues to improve, and the release of "X-ray detector + other parts" is positive
1) medical treatment: we expect that the general radiology will maintain a stable growth and the dentistry will maintain a high-speed growth; As the main application field of X-ray flat panel detectors, medical X-ray detectors will increase from 99000 in 2018 to 143000 in 2024, with CAGR ≈ 6.3%.
2) industry: the company's strategic key customers are further arranged, and the high boom demand for new energy battery testing brings new opportunities. According to the prediction of GGII, the installed capacity of global power battery is expected to increase from 136 GWH in 2020 to nearly 2000 GWH in 2025, with gagr ≈ 71.2%.
3) production capacity: Haining factory entered the production stage in 22 years (nearly 3W flat panel detectors, 10W linear array detectors, 6W intraoral dental detectors, etc.).
4) convertible bonds: layout upstream raw materials, self-made scintillators, realize the localization of core raw materials, and further improve the cost reduction ability; Expand new detectors (CMOS, CT detectors, etc.), improve the company's high-end and dynamic product layout, and gradually open up growth space.
Profit forecast
According to the performance forecast, taking into account the high growth rate and non recurring profits and losses of the company's dental and industrial business, we adjusted the company's return profit forecast for 21-23 years from RMB 401 / 612 / 902 million to RMB 462 / 646 / 906 million, and the corresponding PE is 63 / 45 / 32x respectively, maintaining the buy rating!
Risk warning: the performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, and the annual report shall prevail; Risk of epidemic affecting overseas sales; Dental and industrial output was lower than expected; Trade friction.
