\u3000\u3000 Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) (688023)
1. Resumption of the company’s growth model: a closed-loop growth from technology driven to compliance driven
In terms of historical performance, the company’s revenue growth and stock price performance are at the leading level in the industry. Through the multi-dimensional review and analysis of the company, we summarize the Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) business growth driving model and believe that the core logic of the company’s growth lies in: 1) taking the emerging safety track with high growth as the starting point; 2) Take the form of platform and service-oriented products as the carrier; 3) Take the regulatory side to the regulated side as the landing scenario to create a closed-loop safety industry from technology driven to compliance driven.
2. Platform and service: growth driven double wheel
From the perspective of revenue structure, the high growth of the company’s revenue is mainly driven by platform and service products, and the revenue growth level of platform products and service products is higher than the overall revenue of the company and the average growth rate of the revenue of Listed Companies in the security industry in that year.
2.1. The platform path is a fast channel for improving product power
We believe that the strategic advantages of the company’s platform strategy are mainly reflected in: 1) the mutual achievements of “new scene” and platform products; 2) Platform products contribute to the improvement of sales and delivery efficiency; 3) From the development process of overseas companies, the company’s platform strategy can build market barriers for a long time. We expect that the company’s cloud security, big data security (including situational awareness and data security solutions) and Internet of things security (especially Internet of vehicles security) will maintain a rapid growth trend.
2.2. Service delivery is the firm starting point of customer stickiness
From the demand side, China’s security service market has entered a period of rapid development; At the same time, from the supply side, security services help the company optimize the revenue growth logic and become the starting point of customer stickiness. In the long run, we believe that there is still room for improvement in the company’s gross margin of safety services, and it plays a positive role in promoting the company’s profit.
3. Growth sustainability Outlook: the strong will always be strong
We believe that the company’s core competitive advantage is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1) technology endowment based on traffic and log analysis ability; 2) Strategic vision of emerging track layout; 3) Build the capacity of supervision side and enterprise side ecology. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the company’s core competitive advantage will remain and drive the company to maintain the trend of high income growth.
4. Valuation analysis and investment suggestions
We valued the company in two stages with reference to DCF and PE valuation methods respectively, and gave the company a valuation of about 26.1 billion yuan, corresponding to the revenue of 1.817/25.41/3.546 billion yuan in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 (down the original forecast of 1.918/27.82/3.894 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 11/118/463 million yuan respectively (adjusted the original forecast of 0.07/239/456 million yuan), and the corresponding target price was 33.249 yuan, From “overweight” to “buy”.
Risk tips: 1) there are subjective assumptions and judgments in the data estimation in the report; 2) The implementation progress of the company’s new products is less than expected; 3) Short term fluctuations in the company’s performance; 4) Industry competition intensifies; 5) Significant changes have taken place in the section policy
