\u3000\u3000 Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) (002405)
Event overview
On January 20, 2021, Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) announced that it had received the supplier Nomination Letter from FAW Volkswagen Automobile Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “FAW Volkswagen”), and the company would provide navigation, map data and online services for FAW Volkswagen’s brand fuel vehicles sold in China from 2024 to 2029.
Analysis and judgment:
Map & service cooperation between leading car enterprises is the next city, making a “good start” in 2022
1. Siwei received the Nomination Letter from FAW Volkswagen suppliers and made a good start in 2022 map. 4D mainly provides navigation, map data and online services to FAW Volkswagen. It is for FAW Volkswagen’s brand fuel vehicles sold in China from 2024 to 2029, with a time span of 5 years. It is worth noting that this nomination letter or performance 4D has entered the preparatory stage of new models in the depot, and the wide time span also shows the depot’s recognition of the company. In addition, the announcement states that “the specific sales volume and sales amount depend on the sales volume of FAW Volkswagen’s brand fuel vehicles sold in China from 2024 to 2029”.
2. In the past three months, we have obtained the map list of three car factories and the platform list of three car factories. Since November 2021, 4D has obtained map data orders from SAIC Volkswagen, Volvo and FAW Volkswagen, and data compliance platform orders from Volvo, Daimler and Ford.
Leading car companies have high recognition and pay attention to the scarcity of capabilities such as company maps
1. It continues to be recognized by leading car enterprises and has a wide demand for map capability. According to the data of the owner’s home, SAIC Volkswagen sold more than 1.05 million vehicles in China and FAW Volkswagen sold more than 860000 vehicles from January to November 2021. According to the ranking of vehicle factory sales, SAIC Volkswagen and FAW Volkswagen ranked first and fourth respectively. 4D is recognized by the car factory, which confirms its ability in map.
2. In addition, the target models of this supply will be on the market from 2024 to 2029, breaking the rumors about the decline in the demand for vehicle paid maps. The scarcity of 4D in vehicle map capability deserves attention. Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) is the first cartographer in China to obtain class a surveying and mapping qualification. At present, the qualification is still scarce (about 30 licenses on the market). At the same time, Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) is backed by the National Bureau of Surveying and mapping, which can be called the national map team, and the scarcity is worthy of attention.
The data security platform has broad prospects, and the cockpit chip has been installed in the front, which continues to drive the growth of the company
1. The data security platform will develop horizontally + vertically. Strong horizontal development profitability: the data security platform business may realize a sustainable profit model such as platform construction fee + subscription fee, which has strong profitability. At the same time, Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as a national team of graphic merchants, it has high competitiveness, and 4D will continue to expand horizontally in this emerging business. Vertical development opens up the business closed loop: at present, the company has signed a high-precision map and automatic driving development platform with Volvo, which fully proves that the data compliance business can pry the orders of other business lines of the company. As the business depth of the data compliance platform, high-precision maps and other businesses may continue to follow the compliance platform in large quantities, promoting the company to enter a period of rapid growth.
2. Jiefa cockpit chip has entered the front loading market and can be expected in large quantities. The cockpit chip ac8015 self-developed by jiefa technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of 4D, achieved front loading and mass production in March 2021. It is oriented to medium and low-end models. According to zoth automobile research, the cumulative supply of ac8015 exceeded 200K, and the application OEMs include SAIC mingjue, GAC motor, GAC Mitsubishi, etc. The company expects that the shipment volume will exceed the target of one million by the end of 2022. Jiefa chip will continue to benefit from the localization and replacement of chips, continue to expand the market and promote the growth of the company with its own strength and cost performance.
Investment advice
As a leader in automotive intelligence with the background of the national team, NavInfo will give priority to the improvement of road traffic, passenger cars and other intelligence. The maintenance profit forecast is as follows: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 3.0/39.7/5.21 billion, and the earnings per share (EPS) will be RMB 0.05/0.17/0.34, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 16.65/share on January 20, 2022. PE will be 341.5/95.8/48.7 times and PS will be 13.2/10.0/7.6 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips
1) risk of new product / business promotion falling short of expectations. 2) The risk of tight global supply of automotive chips. 3) The risk of macroeconomic downturn is that the development of intelligent automobile industry is less than expected.
