\u3000\u3000 Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) (300682)
Revenue growth exceeded expectations, and the early investment in new energy Internet business briefly affected profits, which is expected to open up new space for the company’s growth. Benefiting from the demand for digital transformation and upgrading of energy customers and the demand for new power services brought by the electrification of energy consumption, the company’s operating revenue is expected to increase by more than 35% year-on-year compared with 2020, with a net profit of about 820-880 million yuan and a deduction of non net profit of about 700-760 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 19.95% – 30.23%. Considering that some energy service businesses are still in the R & D and channel construction investment period in 21 years, and the equity incentive cost of the company is about 130 million yuan, an increase of about 40 million yuan over 20 years, it is expected that in 2022, with the gradual conversion of convertible bonds to shares, the financial cost will be reduced, the new business revenue will be further increased, the profitability is expected to be significantly improved, and the energy Internet service platform is expected to open a new space for improvement and growth.
The first mover advantage of energy services is significant, and the main business will benefit from the digital transformation and upgrading of energy customers and the increase in the proportion of terminal electrification consumption. 1) Focusing on the marketing system and the core profit link of the power grid, the company has been deeply engaged in the field of power service marketing informatization for more than 20 years since 1996, with a market share of more than 40%. The switching cost of this business is high and the pattern is stable. At the same time, the industry relies on know-how and technology accumulation, and the barriers are very high. Relying on long-term accumulation, the company has formed a full product line in the field of power marketing, and rapidly cultivated medium and Taiwan capacity, with strong market response. 2) The company’s 2B energy digital service business has increased the reserve of relevant personnel and R & D investment, with more than 500 new R & D personnel. Key projects are progressing smoothly. It is expected that the revenue of energy digital service business will increase by about 40% year-on-year. 2C’s energy digital operation business is growing at a high speed, the platform transaction volume is growing rapidly, and the user activity continues to improve. Taking the electric vehicle aggregation charging business as an example, by the end of 2021, the number of new transit aggregation charging connected to charging pile operators has exceeded 400, the number of operating charging piles has exceeded 300000, the number of new energy charging motor vehicles has exceeded 2.1 million, and the charging capacity is nearly 560 million kwh, With a year-on-year increase of nearly 8 times, the revenue model has also expanded from service fee sharing to power wholesale sales and other fields. Maintain high investment in energy services to ensure long-term growth.
“Traffic + better understanding of electricity” at the C-end builds a competitive barrier, and the service scenario of the b-end energy platform continues to expand. The company has built its own energy Internet platform, adopting B2B2C mode and multi track. 1) C end life payment is closely related to Alipay, and the traffic entrance is more stable. In the future, we will rely on the payment scenario and expand value-added services to enhance profitability. 2) By the end of 2021, the new power path aggregate charging platform has been connected to more than 400 charging pile operators, and has been connected to the platforms of head operators such as national household electrical appliance network, China Southern Power Grid, special call, star charging and cloud fast charging. The number of operating charging piles is more than 300000, and the number of serving new energy source charging electric vehicles is more than 2.1 million. In 2021, the aggregate charging capacity is nearly 560 million kwh, It is nearly 8 times of the charging capacity in 2020. The revenue of aggregate charging business has achieved rapid growth, and the revenue model has also expanded from service fee sharing to power wholesale sales and other fields.; 3) In the field of enterprise energy services, Langxin’s photovoltaic cloud platform has been connected to more than 10000 photovoltaic power stations. The company’s building smart energy-saving service platform has also achieved breakthroughs for hospitals, enterprises, parks and other customers. In the future, we will expand new space around different power stations and business entities, and rely on share cards to benefit from the downstream boom; 4) Relying on complete product lines, the company participates in comprehensive energy services, actively promotes product platform and cloud, and builds its own comprehensive energy service cloud to provide PAAS services, which is expected to gradually expand to smart parking, park management, etc., and open up long-term space.
Relying on the cooperative ecology, Internet TV builds strong barriers and opens up space for entering IPTV. 1) In the Internet TV industry, licenses are scarce and operators are concentrated. The company entered earlier and established a close cooperation ecology with licensors and operators to form cards and barriers; 2) The company has gradually expanded to IPTV and opened up a number of value-added services relying on platform operation, with optimistic growth space in the future.
Maintain the “buy” rating. We predict that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.621/61.21/7.747 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of 36.4% / 32.4% / 26.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.70/11.99/1.542 billion yuan. Considering the company’s business model and revenue growth, and referring to the valuation of comparable companies, the target market value of the company in 2022 will be 53.955 billion yuan, corresponding to 45 times the PE level, and given a “buy” rating
Risk tip: power informatization bidding is less than expected, industry competition intensifies, and the return of new business is less than expected.
