\u3000\u3000 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) (600760)
In 2021, the annual revenue increased by 25% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non parent company increased by 70% year-on-year
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021:
1) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 1.696 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 14.56%. Lower than expected.
2) it is estimated that the net profit deducted from non return to parent will be 1.597 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 69.93%. The growth rate of net profit excluding non parent company was significantly higher than that of parent company, partly due to the large amount of government subsidies of about 430 million in the same period last year.
3) the company's revenue is expected to increase by about 25% year-on-year, that is, about 34.1 billion.
4) the financial expenses are expected to decrease by 230 million yuan year-on-year, compared with - 18 million in the same period last year, so it is expected to be - 248 million in 2021, or benefit from the advance payment of large contract liabilities.
China's military aircraft industry has ushered in a golden period of development, and the company will continue to benefit
1) China has grown into the second largest economy in the world, and its national defense strength does not fully match its economic status. Among the three armed forces, the gap in aviation equipment is the largest, and the number of military aircraft is only 29% of that of the United States.
2) it is expected that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the national defense expenditure will increase steadily, the proportion of equipment expenditure is expected to increase, the aviation equipment is expected to be over allocated, the military aircraft industry will usher in a golden development period, and the total scale of the fighter market is about 550 billion, with a compound growth rate of 19%.
3) the company's product j-16 is China's most advanced heavy-duty multifunctional fighter, which is indispensable in the equipment system of "four generation equipment as the backbone and three generation equipment as the main body". J-15 is the only carrier based aircraft in active service, with strong growth certainty. Uighur Eagle stealth fighter has broad application space. The company will continue to benefit from the subsequent equipment volume.
Seize the opportunity of cross generational development and boost the company's performance by multiple factors
1) in 2021, the company disclosed 37.7 billion contract liabilities, indicating strong downstream demand.
2) the reform of military pricing mechanism is expected to open the company's medium and long-term profit space.
3) implement lean management and continuously improve the balanced production level. In 2020, the proportion of revenue is 2:2:3:3, which promotes the full release of the company's production capacity, superimposes the large-scale effect of products, and the company's gross profit margin is expected to increase.
4) the state continues to promote the reform of state-owned enterprises, improve the vitality of state-owned assets, and the company implements ten-year equity incentive. The company's subsequent operating efficiency is expected to continue to improve.
Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) : the compound growth rate of performance in the next three years is expected to exceed 25%
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is RMB 1.70/22.9/2.93 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15% / 35% / 28%, EPS is RMB 0.87/1.17/1.50, PE is 66 / 49 / 38 times and PS is 3.3/2.7/2.1 times. Considering the strategic value and scarcity of the company as the only listed company of A-share fighter machine manufacturing, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the confirmation of military product delivery is not as expected; 2) The development progress of key models is less than expected.
